{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9d445c9-cf3f-49c1-ba3d-b9710de6bf2a", "symbol": "NXTCL", "name": "NextCell Pharma AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.52, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.703, "architecture_energy": 20.17, "architecture_maturity": 31.304, "architecture_confidence": 89.673, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.08, "rotation_up": 24.59, "upward_expansion": 15.5, "deceleration": 38.15, "rotation_down": 37.19, "downward_expansion": 63.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.079467, 1.066073, 1.098219, 1.147002 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.064, "trend_reference": 1.217867, "distance_from_trend": -0.126341, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.827918, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.417917, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.967213, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.329975, "excess_performance": -0.391469, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.126341, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098596, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.417917, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004191, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119672, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156145, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.329975, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.473216, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2597837, "relative_activity": 1.506568, "balance": 0.473216, "dry_up": 0.780868, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155364, "annualized_volatility": 0.633082, "from_high_reference": -0.403587, "from_low_reference": 0.688889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.217867, "fair_value_reference": 1.827918, "structural_low": 0.905, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.049697, "positive_rate": 0.390244, "directional_follow_through": 0.609756, "median_excess_return": -0.048589, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 1.311499, "worst_return": -0.246552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.027222, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045523, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.925, "worst_return": -0.388587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.131711, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.152447, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.425, "worst_return": -0.495268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033645, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.112621, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082051, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.311623, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": 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"volume": 701172, "typical_volume": 1639262.6, "trend": 1.1807, "fair_value": 1.888688, "relative_strength": -8.202733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.477734, "energy": 34.160699, "activity_lines": [ 1.068133, 1.076473, 1.124076, 1.171335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.01, "volume": 971210, "typical_volume": 1643266.75, "trend": 1.191167, "fair_value": 1.867021, "relative_strength": -14.661354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.599642, "energy": 29.95739, "activity_lines": [ 1.053867, 1.0616, 1.108781, 1.160323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.126, "volume": 1115710, "typical_volume": 1659922.25, "trend": 1.2053, "fair_value": 1.847701, "relative_strength": -5.678212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.760129, "energy": 17.792867, "activity_lines": [ 1.0812, 1.069345, 1.106038, 1.156118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.064, "volume": 2597837, "typical_volume": 1724341.35, "trend": 1.217867, "fair_value": 1.827918, "relative_strength": -11.967213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.702744, "energy": 20.170202, "activity_lines": [ 1.079467, 1.066073, 1.098219, 1.147002 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }