{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9d63d64-127a-4205-b65d-bdd414e5d14c", "symbol": "AUNI", "name": "21Shares Uniswap ETP", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.734, "architecture_energy": 43.855, "architecture_maturity": 18.366, "architecture_confidence": 60.053, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.41, "rotation_up": 69.78, "upward_expansion": 54.49, "deceleration": 29.77, "rotation_down": 19.97, "downward_expansion": 15.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.802447, 5.608822, 5.237726, 5.207347 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.0796, "trend_reference": 5.265657, "distance_from_trend": 0.154576, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.158735, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.455171, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.078044, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.188676, "excess_performance": 0.101898, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.154576, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17357, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.455171, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095462, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.28078, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.221857, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.188676, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.882365, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15300, "relative_activity": 0.785568, "balance": 0.882365, "dry_up": 1.715863, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110722, "annualized_volatility": 0.831704, "from_high_reference": -0.621852, "from_low_reference": 0.632502 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.265657, "fair_value_reference": 11.158735, "structural_low": 3.7241, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.049073, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062564, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.019797, "worst_return": -0.117943, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.348781, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.430074, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.348781, "worst_return": -0.348781, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.510491, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.615145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.510491, "worst_return": -0.510491, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080069, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.203207, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076588, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.260246, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031356, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 6.933, "volume": 450, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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11.233856, "relative_strength": -30.660652, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.286554, "energy": 63.404232, "activity_lines": [ 5.946947, 5.460764, 5.153568, 5.192551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 4.8947, "volume": 62831, "typical_volume": 18791.9, "trend": 5.320243, "fair_value": 11.192151, "relative_strength": -44.403847, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.472087, "energy": 33.802394, "activity_lines": [ 5.659927, 5.437716, 5.138447, 5.158356 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 6.0796, "volume": 15300, "typical_volume": 19476.35, "trend": 5.265657, "fair_value": 11.158735, "relative_strength": -28.078044, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.734445, "energy": 43.855347, "activity_lines": [ 5.802447, 5.608822, 5.237726, 5.207347 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }