{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9d94ab1-6d4f-45b5-b978-7ca76e02964a", "symbol": "TYRA", "name": "Tyra Biosciences Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 63.214, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.032, "architecture_energy": 36.161, "architecture_maturity": 22.824, "architecture_confidence": 89.925, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.79, "rotation_up": 22.23, "upward_expansion": 6.41, "deceleration": 44.43, "rotation_down": 46.36, "downward_expansion": 72.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.931333, 30.266727, 31.270381, 32.156022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.51, "trend_reference": 32.539667, "distance_from_trend": -0.185302, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.761731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.412983, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.463018, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.144839, "excess_performance": -0.332292, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185302, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080729, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.412983, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.552177, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.494848, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144839, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.339791, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5239309, "relative_activity": 1.216468, "balance": 1.339791, "dry_up": 0.763097, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155246, "annualized_volatility": 0.635901, "from_high_reference": -0.347847, "from_low_reference": 1.661647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.539667, "fair_value_reference": 18.761731, "structural_low": 24.66, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007072, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.004074, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.488031, "worst_return": -0.1879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.184116, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.098474, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.395573, "worst_return": -0.209335, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.065905, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.908785, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.769009, "worst_return": 0.362801, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.326255, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.040682, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.092397, "worst_return": 0.560113, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009573, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.21444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053203, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148936, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.111432, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.267143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127045, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001579, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.71885, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.213578, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.156427, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.174914, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.57, "volume": 158734, "typical_volume": 281475.8, "trend": 14.254333, "fair_value": 12.216436, "relative_strength": 13.566865, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"relative_strength": 11.72992, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.285902, "energy": 8.774366, "activity_lines": [ 31.536, 30.761091, 32.059429, 32.588688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.88, "volume": 2946844, "typical_volume": 4352038.2, "trend": 32.633, "fair_value": 18.690449, "relative_strength": 14.14485, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.804397, "energy": 17.423504, "activity_lines": [ 31.628667, 30.996727, 31.910286, 32.551054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.51, "volume": 5239309, "typical_volume": 4306985.4, "trend": 32.539667, "fair_value": 18.761731, "relative_strength": -10.463018, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.032175, "energy": 36.161355, "activity_lines": [ 29.931333, 30.266727, 31.270381, 32.156022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }