{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9da99b7-55eb-42f8-af03-be1ec60488ad", "symbol": "HBIG", "name": "Harvest Balanced Income & Growth ETF Class A", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.412, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.482, "architecture_energy": 51.66, "architecture_maturity": 52.421, "architecture_confidence": 50.451, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.5, "rotation_up": 46.41, "upward_expansion": 74.61, "deceleration": 71.1, "rotation_down": 29.01, "downward_expansion": 12.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.416893, 24.402691, 24.258978, 24.039693 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.66, "trend_reference": 23.797584, "distance_from_trend": 0.03624, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.240154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.108805, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.410295, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.051054, "excess_performance": -0.069367, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03624, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017517, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.108805, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022974, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064103, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006702, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051054, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.149123, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7200, "relative_activity": 2.278481, "balance": 2.149123, "dry_up": 1.218354, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010292, "annualized_volatility": 0.067443, "from_high_reference": -0.004843, "from_low_reference": 0.123103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.797584, "fair_value_reference": 22.240154, "structural_low": 22.569084, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.036817, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.059899, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.036817, "worst_return": 0.036817, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.074737, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.04186, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.074737, "worst_return": 0.074737, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.000345, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006438, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03212, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015602, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.867475, "energy": 72.225342, "activity_lines": [ 24.437642, 24.363834, 24.060933, 23.87105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.248745, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 3650.0, "trend": 23.696393, "fair_value": 22.185163, "relative_strength": -5.930075, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.160036, "energy": 54.901151, "activity_lines": [ 24.374894, 24.362011, 24.105022, 23.908833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.149405, "volume": 2700, "typical_volume": 3515.0, "trend": 23.72413, "fair_value": 22.201669, "relative_strength": -6.295183, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.724755, "energy": 42.595391, "activity_lines": [ 24.28919, 24.33537, 24.137439, 23.93806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.4, "volume": 4600, "typical_volume": 3065.0, "trend": 23.760554, "fair_value": 22.219989, "relative_strength": -4.645348, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.625311, "energy": 38.796603, "activity_lines": [ 24.313071, 24.348263, 24.189184, 23.981664 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.66, "volume": 7200, "typical_volume": 3160.0, "trend": 23.797584, "fair_value": 22.240154, "relative_strength": -6.410295, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.481774, "energy": 51.660175, "activity_lines": [ 24.416893, 24.402691, 24.258978, 24.039693 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }