{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9dcdfd9-e35e-4323-9976-1d74c7309d1e", "symbol": "688660", "name": "Shanghai Electric Wind Power Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.847, "architecture_energy": 58.898, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.095, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.82, "rotation_up": 27.71, "upward_expansion": 10.5, "deceleration": 60.95, "rotation_down": 53.52, "downward_expansion": 83.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.406, 8.506545, 9.484048, 10.484344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.88, "trend_reference": 11.967333, "distance_from_trend": -0.25798, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.889808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.001103, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.823792, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.382476, "excess_performance": -0.339272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.25798, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197649, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.001103, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.439857, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.408238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167025, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.382476, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.573927, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116352126, "relative_activity": 1.366035, "balance": 0.573927, "dry_up": 1.750758, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121535, "annualized_volatility": 0.446108, "from_high_reference": -0.66081, "from_low_reference": 0.184 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.967333, "fair_value_reference": 8.889808, "structural_low": 7.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.02554, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.01912, "regime_survival": 0.965517, "best_return": 0.304636, "worst_return": -0.202265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.096463, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.079494, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.204861, "worst_return": -0.234043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.145235, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.100815, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.680556, "worst_return": -0.406186, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "down", "direction": -73.019192, "energy": 87.725336, "activity_lines": [ 8.742667, 9.375273, 10.591238, 11.626774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.77, "volume": 163145461, "typical_volume": 83309654.6, "trend": 12.794667, "fair_value": 8.836282, "relative_strength": -46.893894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.044596, "energy": 82.964931, "activity_lines": [ 8.361333, 8.957455, 10.221333, 11.282452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.69, "volume": 124370351, "typical_volume": 84091796.8, "trend": 12.527667, "fair_value": 8.849551, "relative_strength": -47.911968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.450822, "energy": 72.012138, "activity_lines": [ 8.066667, 8.608545, 9.876381, 10.953118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.62, "volume": 192615589, "typical_volume": 85271331.05, "trend": 12.238333, "fair_value": 8.868462, "relative_strength": -41.499904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.747323, "energy": 64.946137, "activity_lines": [ 8.196667, 8.505273, 9.651571, 10.701011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.88, "volume": 116352126, "typical_volume": 85175062.0, "trend": 11.967333, "fair_value": 8.889808, "relative_strength": -40.823792, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.846987, "energy": 58.897733, "activity_lines": [ 8.406, 8.506545, 9.484048, 10.484344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }