{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9de7ea6-f131-42de-b37c-d0692e7c71a9", "symbol": "000681", "name": "Visual China Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.895, "architecture_energy": 65.2, "architecture_maturity": 41.138, "architecture_confidence": 83.08, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.74, "rotation_up": 11.51, "upward_expansion": 13.05, "deceleration": 41.05, "rotation_down": 69.93, "downward_expansion": 86.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.167341, 17.993317, 19.364558, 20.29381 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.4, "trend_reference": 22.015616, "distance_from_trend": -0.16423, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.168824, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012724, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.862185, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.301708, "excess_performance": -0.309108, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16423, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049932, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012724, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246276, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188622, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02716, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.301708, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.813574, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 228612698, "relative_activity": 1.671797, "balance": 0.813574, "dry_up": 1.224068, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122931, "annualized_volatility": 0.582984, "from_high_reference": -0.475933, "from_low_reference": 0.230007 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.015616, "fair_value_reference": 18.168824, "structural_low": 14.959268, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.014519, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.009073, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.382883, "worst_return": -0.217736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.05427, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.008294, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.399805, "worst_return": -0.191919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.340965, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.251015, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.078269, "worst_return": -0.085324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 18.206735, "relative_strength": -28.727961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.737419, "energy": 84.106447, "activity_lines": [ 18.013096, 19.489538, 20.34048, 21.325026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.154813, "volume": 116413351, "typical_volume": 129175893.8, "trend": 22.336281, "fair_value": 18.188703, "relative_strength": -31.596687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.875604, "energy": 88.557367, "activity_lines": [ 16.760459, 18.547983, 19.802398, 20.846856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.560028, "volume": 190486921, "typical_volume": 130981950.85, "trend": 22.195949, "fair_value": 18.17371, "relative_strength": -19.067286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.912191, "energy": 79.610668, "activity_lines": [ 16.745905, 18.166744, 19.532646, 20.53871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.4, "volume": 228612698, "typical_volume": 136746672.55, "trend": 22.015616, "fair_value": 18.168824, "relative_strength": -18.862185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.894576, "energy": 65.200161, "activity_lines": [ 17.167341, 17.993317, 19.364558, 20.29381 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }