{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9de819c-b3ea-4528-bbf2-e486fb118de6", "symbol": "BB", "name": "BlackBerry Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.146, "architecture_energy": 32.117, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.095, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.13, "rotation_up": 26.52, "upward_expansion": 61.7, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 32.28, "downward_expansion": 23.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.482667, 13.305636, 12.235857, 10.616753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.53, "trend_reference": 8.634, "distance_from_trend": 0.451239, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.604295, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.235785, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 52.067964, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.64346, "excess_performance": 1.523039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.451239, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.431366, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.235785, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.506796, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.52068, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134168, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.64346, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.72193, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11793400, "relative_activity": 0.655827, "balance": 0.72193, "dry_up": 1.32942, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145743, "annualized_volatility": 0.76726, "from_high_reference": -0.270239, "from_low_reference": 1.88046 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.634, "fair_value_reference": 5.604295, "structural_low": 4.35, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.040402, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.053823, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.257991, "worst_return": -0.29695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.187719, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.228359, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.065811, "worst_return": -0.267802, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.067416, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.259654, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.168421, "worst_return": -0.294118, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.378208, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.564852, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.288925, "worst_return": -0.467492, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137634, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059891, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141544, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049914, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072626, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067594, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075926, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145138, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091954, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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66.488596, "activity_lines": [ 14.574667, 13.928727, 11.554333, 9.843613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.04, "volume": 13140800, "typical_volume": 17237250.0, "trend": 8.170667, "fair_value": 5.528141, "relative_strength": 54.506923, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.228935, "energy": 55.054521, "activity_lines": [ 13.741333, 13.747273, 11.804524, 10.107398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.93, "volume": 16829200, "typical_volume": 17820790.0, "trend": 8.394333, "fair_value": 5.563782, "relative_strength": 51.658694, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.767139, "energy": 36.05253, "activity_lines": [ 12.872, 13.481455, 12.009143, 10.349935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.53, "volume": 11793400, "typical_volume": 17982485.0, "trend": 8.634, "fair_value": 5.604295, "relative_strength": 52.067964, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.145612, "energy": 32.117067, "activity_lines": [ 12.482667, 13.305636, 12.235857, 10.616753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }