{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9e36ed2-6fe0-485f-bcd2-81cdb80370be", "symbol": "ES", "name": "Eversource Energy", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.826, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.273, "architecture_energy": 33.188, "architecture_maturity": 31.343, "architecture_confidence": 54.87, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.33, "rotation_up": 47.58, "upward_expansion": 72.53, "deceleration": 65.89, "rotation_down": 22.54, "downward_expansion": 8.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.12, 73.109455, 71.53434, 70.905416 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 72.33, "trend_reference": 70.229295, "distance_from_trend": 0.029912, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.027761, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.204942, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.039694, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.097783, "excess_performance": -0.027842, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029912, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029969, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.204942, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094379, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060397, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056666, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097783, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.869715, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12119498, "relative_activity": 1.020483, "balance": 1.869715, "dry_up": 0.990462, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045159, "annualized_volatility": 0.264033, "from_high_reference": -0.055374, "from_low_reference": 0.228756 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.229295, "fair_value_reference": 60.027761, "structural_low": 65.143954, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.024882, "positive_rate": 0.304348, "directional_follow_through": 0.304348, "median_excess_return": -0.024271, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.051452, "worst_return": -0.176885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.03986, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.0851, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.068077, "worst_return": -0.143067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0158, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.069696, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048097, "worst_return": -0.20502, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 74.91, "volume": 8761718, "typical_volume": 11991543.5, "trend": 69.861294, "fair_value": 59.855363, "relative_strength": 1.61027, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.600369, "energy": 71.511681, "activity_lines": [ 74.656667, 73.131818, 71.167094, 70.645407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.59, "volume": 15755952, "typical_volume": 12264025.6, "trend": 70.028559, "fair_value": 59.938632, "relative_strength": -3.832047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.197509, "energy": 43.979404, "activity_lines": [ 73.702, 73.067818, 71.313874, 70.756936 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.33, "volume": 12119498, "typical_volume": 11876236.25, "trend": 70.229295, "fair_value": 60.027761, "relative_strength": -6.039694, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.272589, "energy": 33.188056, "activity_lines": [ 73.12, 73.109455, 71.53434, 70.905416 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }