{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9ed458a-6595-4f93-9318-25f34ac07370", "symbol": "EL4A", "name": "Deka DAX UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.101, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.879, "architecture_energy": 71.032, "architecture_maturity": 15.603, "architecture_confidence": 81.432, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.84, "rotation_up": 67.0, "upward_expansion": 87.97, "deceleration": 46.32, "rotation_down": 15.66, "downward_expansion": 14.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 223.830003, 221.757273, 218.805334, 216.434775 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 230.100006, "trend_reference": 215.039, "distance_from_trend": 0.070038, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 184.35009, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248169, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.260537, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060613, "excess_performance": -0.004027, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070038, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013431, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248169, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052253, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002605, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000907, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060613, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.876839, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74599, "relative_activity": 1.417213, "balance": 1.876839, "dry_up": 0.926293, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02519, "annualized_volatility": 0.18917, "from_high_reference": -0.003249, "from_low_reference": 0.198687 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 215.039, "fair_value_reference": 184.35009, "structural_low": 191.960007, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.000511, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000428, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.085631, "worst_return": -0.113631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.018861, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.001262, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.124886, "worst_return": -0.069707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.051675, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.004254, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.171908, "worst_return": -0.011956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.034394, "energy": 41.640372, "activity_lines": [ 219.11333, 218.362726, 215.488476, 214.502753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 219.350006, "volume": 37588, "typical_volume": 59002.0, "trend": 214.469, "fair_value": 183.247783, "relative_strength": -0.314522, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.425399, "energy": 46.486369, "activity_lines": [ 219.2, 218.72, 216.173858, 214.830022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 224.0, "volume": 44954, "typical_volume": 54625.9, "trend": 214.757333, "fair_value": 183.775731, "relative_strength": -0.298463, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.646449, "energy": 43.255841, "activity_lines": [ 220.776667, 219.742727, 217.24281, 215.444925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 230.100006, "volume": 74599, "typical_volume": 52637.8, "trend": 215.039, "fair_value": 184.35009, "relative_strength": -0.260537, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.878803, "energy": 71.031584, "activity_lines": [ 223.830003, 221.757273, 218.805334, 216.434775 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }