{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9f21b98-844d-4029-9012-67aa53b1356f", "symbol": "NOVB-F", "name": "First Trust Vest U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - November", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.947, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.115, "architecture_energy": 88.04, "architecture_maturity": 55.501, "architecture_confidence": 72.401, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 56.44, "upward_expansion": 95.33, "deceleration": 44.67, "rotation_down": 29.98, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.404, 51.315818, 50.966857, 50.417097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 51.380001, "trend_reference": 49.822333, "distance_from_trend": 0.031264, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.661058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176792, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.423347, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.048144, "excess_performance": -0.072278, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031264, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019661, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.176792, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010638, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064233, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016411, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048144, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.070494, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.070494, "dry_up": 0.360683, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003788, "annualized_volatility": 0.085606, "from_high_reference": -0.001166, "from_low_reference": 0.134467 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.822333, "fair_value_reference": 43.661058, "structural_low": 46.209999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.00489, "positive_rate": 0.585366, "directional_follow_through": 0.585366, "median_excess_return": -0.00637, "regime_survival": 0.780488, "best_return": 0.061419, "worst_return": -0.047782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.026249, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.021468, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.086081, "worst_return": -0.055341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.060271, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.037058, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.122253, "worst_return": -0.026116, "sufficient": 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42.927917, "relative_strength": -5.182504, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.488743, "energy": 81.444154, "activity_lines": [ 50.902666, 50.611091, 49.751952, 49.452086 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 50.849998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3737.0, "trend": 49.201333, "fair_value": 43.021507, "relative_strength": -5.035391, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.986656, "energy": 79.911856, "activity_lines": [ 50.893332, 50.73109, 49.898285, 49.565892 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 51.200001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3701.75, "trend": 49.290667, "fair_value": 43.11734, "relative_strength": -4.204279, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.278963, "energy": 66.469483, "activity_lines": [ 50.996, 50.855454, 50.06919, 49.694839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 51.200001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3596.75, "trend": 49.378, "fair_value": 43.20843, "relative_strength": -4.736347, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.523367, "energy": 84.798605, "activity_lines": [ 51.060667, 50.955636, 50.229714, 49.818021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 51.439999, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 3601.75, "trend": 49.463, "fair_value": 43.301058, "relative_strength": -4.254583, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.040588, "energy": 78.891459, "activity_lines": [ 51.21, 51.074, 50.403381, 49.951054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.439999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1651.15, "trend": 49.568666, "fair_value": 43.390289, "relative_strength": -3.971712, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.543242, "energy": 91.660324, "activity_lines": [ 51.320666, 51.163636, 50.56619, 50.078602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.439999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1651.15, "trend": 49.649, "fair_value": 43.479519, "relative_strength": -4.09427, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.127908, "energy": 90.155617, "activity_lines": [ 51.391999, 51.234181, 50.717476, 50.199333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.380001, "volume": 895, "typical_volume": 830.9, "trend": 49.735667, "fair_value": 43.569007, "relative_strength": -3.62418, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.453285, "energy": 88.502685, "activity_lines": [ 51.404, 51.281818, 50.851524, 50.311011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.380001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 620.35, "trend": 49.822333, "fair_value": 43.661058, "relative_strength": -6.423347, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.115302, "energy": 88.039519, "activity_lines": [ 51.404, 51.315818, 50.966857, 50.417097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }