{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9f2f932-2f68-45fd-9a90-cb6a12697e3c", "symbol": "SST", "name": "Sub Sri Thai Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.9, "architecture_energy": 22.803, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.43, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.18, "rotation_up": 27.82, "upward_expansion": 20.78, "deceleration": 46.61, "rotation_down": 23.9, "downward_expansion": 57.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.024667, 1.010545, 1.024, 1.066022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.02, "trend_reference": 1.123333, "distance_from_trend": -0.091988, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.197164, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.680967, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.837615, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.15, "excess_performance": -0.342325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091988, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121022, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.680967, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027761, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.338376, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074293, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.911945, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10000, "relative_activity": 0.252908, "balance": 1.911945, "dry_up": 1.219019, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051282, "annualized_volatility": 0.440287, "from_high_reference": -0.49, "from_low_reference": 0.133333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.123333, "fair_value_reference": 3.197164, "structural_low": 0.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.038823, "positive_rate": 0.264706, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": -0.031643, "regime_survival": 0.970588, "best_return": 0.134361, "worst_return": -0.365169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.164271, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.181782, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.155556, "worst_return": -0.349515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.280488, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.349694, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.157761, "worst_return": -0.464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-01-06", "end": "2023-01-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045113, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-04-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015504, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-05-05", "end": "2023-05-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081633, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 1.03, "volume": 137600, "typical_volume": 42420.0, "trend": 1.162, "fair_value": 3.29073, "relative_strength": -37.177922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.340039, "energy": 42.761254, "activity_lines": [ 1.003333, 0.997636, 1.041429, 1.090043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.02, "volume": 16800, "typical_volume": 41200.0, "trend": 1.147333, "fair_value": 3.25952, "relative_strength": -36.98412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.456718, "energy": 34.523968, "activity_lines": [ 1.013333, 1.001636, 1.034714, 1.080882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.03, "volume": 28400, "typical_volume": 41830.0, "trend": 1.133, "fair_value": 3.228374, "relative_strength": -34.708164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.991318, "energy": 25.705629, "activity_lines": [ 1.022667, 1.007091, 1.029619, 1.073312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.02, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 39540.0, "trend": 1.123333, "fair_value": 3.197164, "relative_strength": -33.837615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.899784, "energy": 22.802713, "activity_lines": [ 1.024667, 1.010545, 1.024, 1.066022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }