{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9f4c0bb-7cbf-4b0f-8d74-fc8c47c00e70", "symbol": "KSM-F188", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds LTD - KSM ETF (60) Short TA-RealEstate IL (1676)", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.454, "architecture_energy": 63.966, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.462, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.19, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 18.0, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 50.3, "downward_expansion": 74.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.791333, 31.748545, 797.132238, 1383.009398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 31.97, "trend_reference": 2096.785333, "distance_from_trend": -0.984753, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8626.279231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.996294, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.193747, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.990803, "excess_performance": -1.019703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984753, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.420003, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.996294, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288833, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.991937, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.424493, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.990803, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.352404, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34386, "relative_activity": 0.312332, "balance": 3.352404, "dry_up": 0.16635, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.686942, "annualized_volatility": 6.326094, "from_high_reference": -0.994793, "from_low_reference": 0.059662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2096.785333, "fair_value_reference": 8626.279231, "structural_low": 30.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.02774, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.050214, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.179754, "worst_return": -0.98991, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.146496, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.252733, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.167279, "worst_return": -0.99029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.27151, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.503282, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.19137, "worst_return": -0.445674, 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2222.386333, "fair_value": 8709.343526, "relative_strength": -99.223412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.878627, "energy": 67.804924, "activity_lines": [ 31.713333, 83.801091, 951.995048, 1524.326581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.97, "volume": 34386, "typical_volume": 110094.55, "trend": 2096.785333, "fair_value": 8626.279231, "relative_strength": -99.193747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.45399, "energy": 63.966421, "activity_lines": [ 31.791333, 31.748545, 797.132238, 1383.009398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }