{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9fbc6c4-3bb9-4260-b37a-1d7d63f3ffd2", "symbol": "SAX", "name": "Str\u00f6er SE & Co. KGaA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 74.868, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.123, "architecture_energy": 81.881, "architecture_maturity": 15.46, "architecture_confidence": 54.641, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.2, "rotation_up": 78.17, "upward_expansion": 90.77, "deceleration": 44.7, "rotation_down": 8.75, "downward_expansion": 17.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.216, 36.770909, 36.007127, 35.290519 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.52, "trend_reference": 34.684483, "distance_from_trend": 0.168246, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.724045, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.113814, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.445475, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.227879, "excess_performance": 0.053632, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.168246, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001507, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.113814, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075805, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094455, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117551, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.227879, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.289394, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 298, "relative_activity": 0.829621, "balance": 0.289394, "dry_up": 0.829621, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052079, "annualized_volatility": 0.368917, "from_high_reference": -0.136954, "from_low_reference": 0.45883 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.684483, "fair_value_reference": 45.724045, "structural_low": 27.775674, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.009434, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.003805, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.097054, "worst_return": -0.075862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016238, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.048854, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.24093, "worst_return": -0.08686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.215343, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.077615, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.25849, "worst_return": -0.294759, "sufficient": 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"fair_value": 45.798908, "relative_strength": -24.148849, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.07207, "energy": 4.342048, "activity_lines": [ 34.693333, 34.969492, 34.679117, 34.464214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.540001, "volume": 298, "typical_volume": 328.15, "trend": 34.537483, "fair_value": 45.772855, "relative_strength": -20.001602, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.734884, "energy": 7.579886, "activity_lines": [ 34.976, 34.998749, 34.815381, 34.527043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.02, "volume": 596, "typical_volume": 344.3, "trend": 34.496483, "fair_value": 45.737385, "relative_strength": -21.182691, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.645215, "energy": 19.566539, "activity_lines": [ 35.002667, 34.966374, 34.896932, 34.558173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.919998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 344.3, "trend": 34.59215, "fair_value": 45.730701, "relative_strength": -9.088792, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.472811, "energy": 65.154677, "activity_lines": [ 36.72, 35.853831, 35.4391, 34.908077 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.52, "volume": 298, "typical_volume": 359.2, "trend": 34.684483, "fair_value": 45.724045, "relative_strength": -9.445475, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.122865, "energy": 81.881282, "activity_lines": [ 38.216, 36.770909, 36.007127, 35.290519 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }