{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c9ffdf6c-00bc-4e39-b582-62844ad83c97", "symbol": "LYPG", "name": "Amundi MSCI World Information Technology UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.629, "architecture_energy": 45.04, "architecture_maturity": 72.528, "architecture_confidence": 95.692, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.79, "rotation_up": 39.79, "upward_expansion": 66.65, "deceleration": 94.24, "rotation_down": 29.36, "downward_expansion": 15.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 1161.826652, 1161.64363, 1142.151421, 1096.164078 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1207.400024, "trend_reference": 1039.846659, "distance_from_trend": 0.161133, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 827.027562, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.459927, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.94898, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.315107, "excess_performance": 0.250468, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.161133, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070377, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.459927, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051502, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.11949, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059565, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.315107, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.653011, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8722, "relative_activity": 2.008497, "balance": 2.653011, "dry_up": 1.224626, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042456, "annualized_volatility": 0.243178, "from_high_reference": -0.002149, "from_low_reference": 0.406243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1039.846659, "fair_value_reference": 827.027562, "structural_low": 858.599976, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002643, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003247, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.100869, "worst_return": -0.143784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.090085, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.058637, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.171976, "worst_return": -0.127124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.196804, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.12508, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.289742, "worst_return": -0.012746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.179708, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027437, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060408, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.081417, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073426, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"typical_volume": 4574.75, "trend": 1013.643329, "fair_value": 811.908332, "relative_strength": 16.822259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.110325, "energy": 62.59255, "activity_lines": [ 1169.77334, 1166.978187, 1108.474758, 1062.34107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1134.199951, "volume": 5289, "typical_volume": 4529.55, "trend": 1019.78666, "fair_value": 815.51346, "relative_strength": 12.812411, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.023168, "energy": 47.373572, "activity_lines": [ 1158.159985, 1162.67636, 1116.589992, 1070.118917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1155.0, "volume": 3023, "typical_volume": 4121.6, "trend": 1026.353326, "fair_value": 819.196793, "relative_strength": 13.114027, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.21815, "energy": 44.659043, "activity_lines": [ 1155.026652, 1161.429088, 1125.611422, 1078.842358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1119.199951, "volume": 4238, "typical_volume": 4097.25, "trend": 1031.759991, "fair_value": 822.765382, "relative_strength": 7.012552, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.318114, "energy": 33.229662, "activity_lines": [ 1142.853304, 1153.236352, 1130.155703, 1084.832463 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1207.400024, "volume": 8722, "typical_volume": 4342.55, "trend": 1039.846659, "fair_value": 827.027562, "relative_strength": 11.94898, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.628837, "energy": 45.039761, "activity_lines": [ 1161.826652, 1161.64363, 1142.151421, 1096.164078 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }