{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca039d54-aaf2-4055-9177-2c2393b3b4fc", "symbol": "AURA33", "name": "Aura Minerals Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.092, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.734, "architecture_energy": 43.4, "architecture_maturity": 8.381, "architecture_confidence": 73.345, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.99, "rotation_up": 23.67, "upward_expansion": 9.81, "deceleration": 43.56, "rotation_down": 52.09, "downward_expansion": 80.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 103.024668, 103.445819, 112.576927, 118.329066 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 125.220001, "trend_reference": 122.328999, "distance_from_trend": 0.023633, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.254089, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.70722, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 25.976758, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.116099, "excess_performance": 0.173148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023633, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078292, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.70722, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.764204, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.259768, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174069, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116099, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.00069, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5690246, "relative_activity": 1.800164, "balance": 1.00069, "dry_up": 1.535417, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115347, "annualized_volatility": 0.912463, "from_high_reference": -0.30785, "from_low_reference": 1.83939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 122.328999, "fair_value_reference": 46.254089, "structural_low": 82.550003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023392, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.021907, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.423246, "worst_return": -0.219278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013734, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.04835, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.31362, "worst_return": -0.305528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.027397, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.08911, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.380707, "worst_return": -0.355981, "sufficient": false }, { 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102.470364, 115.240592, 119.925732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.35, "volume": 3439871, "typical_volume": 3306896.95, "trend": 121.230013, "fair_value": 45.509531, "relative_strength": -8.767238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.340962, "energy": 80.375298, "activity_lines": [ 93.772001, 99.711273, 112.249885, 118.071648 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 125.220001, "volume": 5690246, "typical_volume": 3160959.9, "trend": 122.328999, "fair_value": 46.254089, "relative_strength": 25.976758, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.734158, "energy": 43.400117, "activity_lines": [ 103.024668, 103.445819, 112.576927, 118.329066 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }