{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca058b77-32fe-412c-a390-a87539c65045", "symbol": "EXV9", "name": "iShares STOXX Europe 600 Travel & Leisure UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.816, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.32, "architecture_energy": 26.044, "architecture_maturity": 51.51, "architecture_confidence": 79.981, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.57, "rotation_up": 23.69, "upward_expansion": 57.11, "deceleration": 90.44, "rotation_down": 30.65, "downward_expansion": 20.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.93307, 25.213778, 24.735036, 24.315313 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.99, "trend_reference": 23.999537, "distance_from_trend": 0.04127, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.300889, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120583, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.545267, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014717, "excess_performance": -0.049922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04127, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016383, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120583, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065231, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009562, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014717, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.172921, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85985, "relative_activity": 0.839471, "balance": 1.172921, "dry_up": 1.359039, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033932, "annualized_volatility": 0.204104, "from_high_reference": -0.054266, "from_low_reference": 0.179665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.999537, "fair_value_reference": 22.300889, "structural_low": 21.183972, "invalidation": "A 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25.357812, 24.476704, 24.161566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.610001, "volume": 158712, "typical_volume": 102267.0, "trend": 24.003692, "fair_value": 22.244533, "relative_strength": -0.607498, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.403796, "energy": 38.798524, "activity_lines": [ 25.272612, 25.306861, 24.553919, 24.200032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.799999, "volume": 135346, "typical_volume": 103119.6, "trend": 23.999442, "fair_value": 22.270824, "relative_strength": -1.818632, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.500044, "energy": 26.845761, "activity_lines": [ 25.02684, 25.253456, 24.641279, 24.251406 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.99, "volume": 85985, "typical_volume": 102427.55, "trend": 23.999537, "fair_value": 22.300889, "relative_strength": -3.545267, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.320286, "energy": 26.04372, "activity_lines": [ 24.93307, 25.213778, 24.735036, 24.315313 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }