{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca068647-662c-468c-8a2b-48dc3d3b98e9", "symbol": "MBS", "name": "ANGEL OAK MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.503, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.135, "architecture_energy": 44.712, "architecture_maturity": 2.574, "architecture_confidence": 91.231, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.42, "rotation_up": 14.41, "upward_expansion": 8.99, "deceleration": 40.48, "rotation_down": 56.36, "downward_expansion": 82.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.526788, 8.547376, 8.563602, 8.580098 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.535, "trend_reference": 8.596706, "distance_from_trend": -0.007178, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.155479, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046536, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.760401, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008032, "excess_performance": -0.195486, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007178, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000962, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046536, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014964, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024905, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008032, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.167337, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 916978, "relative_activity": 2.698783, "balance": 1.167337, "dry_up": 1.100281, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011319, "annualized_volatility": 0.034402, "from_high_reference": -0.047939, "from_low_reference": 0.048027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.596706, "fair_value_reference": 8.155479, "structural_low": 8.46, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.414513, "energy": 15.188498, "activity_lines": [ 8.575086, 8.57462, 8.584406, 8.59631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.524565, "volume": 209136, "typical_volume": 342153.65, "trend": 8.60055, "fair_value": 8.149856, "relative_strength": -8.594492, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.19557, "energy": 34.426399, "activity_lines": [ 8.556423, 8.566454, 8.577504, 8.591337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.49, "volume": 224984, "typical_volume": 309438.6, "trend": 8.598651, "fair_value": 8.152514, "relative_strength": -9.133871, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.100721, "energy": 51.042694, "activity_lines": [ 8.530295, 8.552461, 8.568113, 8.584204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.535, "volume": 916978, "typical_volume": 339774.65, "trend": 8.596706, "fair_value": 8.155479, "relative_strength": -12.760401, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.134803, "energy": 44.712488, "activity_lines": [ 8.526788, 8.547376, 8.563602, 8.580098 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }