{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca0a924b-c66e-4c09-bcf4-33569f9ce6ce", "symbol": "300094", "name": "Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.747, "architecture_energy": 37.78, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.345, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.67, "rotation_up": 27.33, "upward_expansion": 18.03, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 36.36, "downward_expansion": 65.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.69, 2.656727, 2.770857, 2.926323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.8, "trend_reference": 3.179667, "distance_from_trend": -0.119405, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.738269, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.25099, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.341898, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.3, "excess_performance": -0.3074, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119405, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113064, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.25099, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071734, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223419, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073607, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.3, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.52298, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 159634204, "relative_activity": 1.302661, "balance": 0.52298, "dry_up": 1.26124, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06978, "annualized_volatility": 0.289356, "from_high_reference": -0.517241, "from_low_reference": 0.147541 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.179667, "fair_value_reference": 3.738269, "structural_low": 2.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.001992, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.016108, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.299419, "worst_return": -0.268456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.053909, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.452297, "worst_return": -0.250765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.103175, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.137853, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.506452, "worst_return": -0.428044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1275, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032178, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057644, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013774, "active": false }, { "regime": 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62.747105, "activity_lines": [ 2.578667, 2.634, 2.802762, 2.986129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.72, "volume": 160906784, "typical_volume": 132338119.8, "trend": 3.205, "fair_value": 3.753205, "relative_strength": -21.496399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.278518, "energy": 51.611225, "activity_lines": [ 2.63, 2.635636, 2.781048, 2.952452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.8, "volume": 159634204, "typical_volume": 122544731.35, "trend": 3.179667, "fair_value": 3.738269, "relative_strength": -22.341898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.747489, "energy": 37.779983, "activity_lines": [ 2.69, 2.656727, 2.770857, 2.926323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }