{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca1594f1-88e2-44e0-b652-015132053dae", "symbol": "FPXE", "name": "FIRST TRUST IPOX EUROPE EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.172, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.246, "architecture_energy": 18.332, "architecture_maturity": 42.21, "architecture_confidence": 75.552, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.4, "rotation_up": 20.46, "upward_expansion": 43.21, "deceleration": 82.1, "rotation_down": 41.25, "downward_expansion": 34.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.43356, 33.783996, 34.069927, 33.699344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.3274, "trend_reference": 33.262104, "distance_from_trend": 0.032027, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.420621, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251883, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.472172, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.051156, "excess_performance": -0.136297, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032027, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033283, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.251883, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059385, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074722, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016613, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051156, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.462762, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1549, "relative_activity": 0.456993, "balance": 2.462762, "dry_up": 0.421147, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042567, "annualized_volatility": 0.225121, "from_high_reference": -0.053658, "from_low_reference": 0.173181 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.262104, "fair_value_reference": 27.420621, "structural_low": 29.2601, "invalidation": 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"relative_strength": -9.683294, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.507137, "energy": 23.988766, "activity_lines": [ 34.514629, 34.711004, 34.16907, 33.671283 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.8538, "volume": 1166, "typical_volume": 3964.45, "trend": 33.105227, "fair_value": 27.184423, "relative_strength": -8.753834, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.15294, "energy": 18.871474, "activity_lines": [ 33.862874, 34.371943, 34.112599, 33.658581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.815, "volume": 1296, "typical_volume": 3815.25, "trend": 33.139894, "fair_value": 27.257862, "relative_strength": -7.074933, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.839925, "energy": 19.545423, "activity_lines": [ 33.372767, 34.055376, 34.055312, 33.639857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.9172, "volume": 1699, "typical_volume": 3426.7, "trend": 33.182654, "fair_value": 27.334292, "relative_strength": -7.021545, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.090266, "energy": 24.594304, "activity_lines": [ 33.130493, 33.771898, 34.001627, 33.62549 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.3274, "volume": 1549, "typical_volume": 3389.55, "trend": 33.262104, "fair_value": 27.420621, "relative_strength": -7.472172, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.245718, "energy": 18.332405, "activity_lines": [ 33.43356, 33.783996, 34.069927, 33.699344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }