{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca167376-3f52-4a39-8b1d-708fcbef91e3", "symbol": "301056", "name": "Sicher Elevator Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.016, "architecture_energy": 79.405, "architecture_maturity": 31.135, "architecture_confidence": 94.442, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.33, "rotation_up": 16.03, "upward_expansion": 18.89, "deceleration": 39.44, "rotation_down": 71.12, "downward_expansion": 94.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.917333, 10.387715, 11.749085, 12.687745 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.53, "trend_reference": 13.840378, "distance_from_trend": -0.239183, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.840866, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.843317, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.35, "excess_performance": -0.3574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.239183, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036284, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070028, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.457898, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218433, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.35, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.632979, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18947603, "relative_activity": 1.293846, "balance": 0.632979, "dry_up": 1.169941, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114573, "annualized_volatility": 0.409298, "from_high_reference": -0.436898, "from_low_reference": 0.255066 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.840378, "fair_value_reference": 9.840866, "structural_low": 8.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.011325, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.02675, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.355156, "worst_return": -0.156167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.289946, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.121926, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.464812, "worst_return": 0.11508, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.185268, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.068261, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.210814, "worst_return": 0.159722, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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{ "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.27, "volume": 1803094, "typical_volume": 14518004.1, "trend": 14.372104, "fair_value": 9.787187, "relative_strength": -25.128527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.97809, "energy": 84.338166, "activity_lines": [ 11.554288, 12.436929, 13.504784, 14.071441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.68, "volume": 13366767, "typical_volume": 14317161.65, "trend": 14.338712, "fair_value": 9.803016, "relative_strength": -26.127544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.404913, "energy": 85.425132, "activity_lines": [ 11.174865, 11.993086, 13.165539, 13.83324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.0, "volume": 12597516, "typical_volume": 14315448.55, "trend": 14.302045, "fair_value": 9.81319, "relative_strength": -23.783169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.362756, "energy": 90.335677, "activity_lines": [ 10.70964, 11.487607, 12.786676, 13.553323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.13, "volume": 21996462, "typical_volume": 14469041.7, "trend": 14.235045, "fair_value": 9.818965, "relative_strength": -30.391801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.655932, "energy": 91.792172, "activity_lines": [ 10.09476, 10.906855, 12.35386, 13.219643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.51, "volume": 14990758, "typical_volume": 14410108.05, "trend": 14.049378, "fair_value": 9.826529, "relative_strength": -26.065987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.590422, "energy": 88.131675, "activity_lines": [ 9.78, 10.508103, 11.988996, 12.914802 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.53, "volume": 18947603, "typical_volume": 14644404.4, "trend": 13.840378, "fair_value": 9.840866, "relative_strength": -21.843317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.016139, "energy": 79.405164, "activity_lines": [ 9.917333, 10.387715, 11.749085, 12.687745 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }