{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca16ddb4-0806-4ba7-8980-4b386bf09bc8", "symbol": "002254", "name": "Tayho Advanced Materials Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 59.957, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.033, "architecture_energy": 34.113, "architecture_maturity": 50.077, "architecture_confidence": 50.971, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.88, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 16.48, "deceleration": 71.27, "rotation_down": 64.46, "downward_expansion": 41.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.96, 13.692727, 14.022049, 13.561884 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.53, "trend_reference": 13.093812, "distance_from_trend": -0.043059, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.580562, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.081985, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.533608, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.039257, "excess_performance": -0.046657, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043059, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148619, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.081985, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12374, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035336, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154055, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039257, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.125042, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116540058, "relative_activity": 0.695037, "balance": 2.125042, "dry_up": 0.85594, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.200531, "annualized_volatility": 0.739882, "from_high_reference": -0.417209, "from_low_reference": 0.363838 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.093812, "fair_value_reference": 11.580562, "structural_low": 9.906318, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.023058, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018626, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.080235, "worst_return": -0.115911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034608, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.056592, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.816001, "worst_return": -0.176285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.167827, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.060433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092047, "worst_return": -0.31759, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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0.570257, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.840513, "energy": 14.519714, "activity_lines": [ 14.866, 15.732735, 14.502779, 13.806618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.15, "volume": 165347903, "typical_volume": 174960690.7, "trend": 12.956899, "fair_value": 11.714803, "relative_strength": -4.729443, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.756112, "energy": 22.917961, "activity_lines": [ 13.204, 14.89, 14.286029, 13.693277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.4, "volume": 132119974, "typical_volume": 171922582.5, "trend": 13.009685, "fair_value": 11.642545, "relative_strength": -0.926275, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.848134, "energy": 33.419829, "activity_lines": [ 12.128667, 14.147455, 14.097818, 13.592832 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.53, "volume": 116540058, "typical_volume": 167674664.0, "trend": 13.093812, "fair_value": 11.580562, "relative_strength": 3.533608, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.032791, "energy": 34.112618, "activity_lines": [ 11.96, 13.692727, 14.022049, 13.561884 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }