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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.094, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.007, "architecture_energy": 87.974, "architecture_maturity": 20.678, "architecture_confidence": 75.926, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.82, "rotation_up": 83.35, "upward_expansion": 97.91, "deceleration": 39.33, "rotation_down": 10.55, "downward_expansion": 19.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.089333, 31.067169, 29.463473, 28.451603 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 33.68, "trend_reference": 27.869742, "distance_from_trend": 0.208479, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.119477, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.241912, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.82377, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.10139, "excess_performance": -0.024235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.208479, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007611, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.241912, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1969, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028238, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.228005, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10139, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.923648, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27617280, "relative_activity": 1.01079, "balance": 1.923648, "dry_up": 0.821202, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055523, "annualized_volatility": 0.350977, "from_high_reference": -0.018076, "from_low_reference": 0.537604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.869742, "fair_value_reference": 27.119477, "structural_low": 21.904214, 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26941389.25, "trend": 27.617515, "fair_value": 26.712423, "relative_strength": -6.350444, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.377397, "energy": 63.263952, "activity_lines": [ 29.631741, 28.762632, 27.523238, 27.337676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.88, "volume": 24484187, "typical_volume": 27257827.35, "trend": 27.675257, "fair_value": 26.812086, "relative_strength": -0.207337, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.764276, "energy": 73.983255, "activity_lines": [ 30.485333, 29.433395, 28.044161, 27.612675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.29, "volume": 14726581, "typical_volume": 26977629.95, "trend": 27.717585, "fair_value": 26.909602, "relative_strength": -0.931307, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.381282, "energy": 81.501556, "activity_lines": [ 30.916667, 29.909581, 28.47784, 27.845884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.19, "volume": 22920991, "typical_volume": 27073829.25, "trend": 27.763777, "fair_value": 27.003372, "relative_strength": -1.769268, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.509978, "energy": 79.926966, "activity_lines": [ 31.174, 30.295515, 28.87146, 28.069911 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.68, "volume": 27617280, "typical_volume": 27322474.25, "trend": 27.869742, "fair_value": 27.119477, "relative_strength": 2.82377, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.006921, "energy": 87.973868, "activity_lines": [ 32.089333, 31.067169, 29.463473, 28.451603 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }