{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca1db997-2a81-4670-bc28-603022a6be7b", "symbol": "OIO", "name": "OIO Group.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.259, "architecture_energy": 51.717, "architecture_maturity": 63.77, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.02, "rotation_up": 20.43, "upward_expansion": 10.23, "deceleration": 40.3, "rotation_down": 53.88, "downward_expansion": 83.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.979333, 2.072273, 2.131786, 2.336755 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.84, "trend_reference": 2.658433, "distance_from_trend": -0.307863, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.9339, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.048555, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -49.032208, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.457227, "excess_performance": -0.644681, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.307863, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185512, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.048555, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.389971, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.490322, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03262, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.457227, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.441546, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 455788, "relative_activity": 1.032137, "balance": 0.441546, "dry_up": 1.555007, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.258131, "annualized_volatility": 0.702049, "from_high_reference": -0.754667, "from_low_reference": 0.226667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.658433, "fair_value_reference": 1.9339, "structural_low": 1.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.051948, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.058838, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.37069, "worst_return": -0.34375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.235063, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.130115, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.279874, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.362069, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.298858, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.362069, "worst_return": 1.362069, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"direction": -54.140373, "energy": 38.535276, "activity_lines": [ 2.081, 2.124, 2.181762, 2.394202 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.84, "volume": 455788, "typical_volume": 441596.6, "trend": 2.658433, "fair_value": 1.9339, "relative_strength": -49.032208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.259114, "energy": 51.717373, "activity_lines": [ 1.979333, 2.072273, 2.131786, 2.336755 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }