{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca1fd1aa-bd04-4950-8a81-b23badb03a5e", "symbol": "AAL", "name": "American Airlines Group Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.888, "architecture_energy": 26.876, "architecture_maturity": 69.925, "architecture_confidence": 75.685, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.21, "rotation_up": 23.78, "upward_expansion": 57.5, "deceleration": 91.14, "rotation_down": 30.69, "downward_expansion": 21.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.395467, 13.770145, 13.036048, 12.355424 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.744, "trend_reference": 11.832333, "distance_from_trend": 0.161563, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.890641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.155867, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.068028, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.075935, "excess_performance": -0.098311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.161563, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03456, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.155867, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.231298, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04068, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095568, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075935, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.562293, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8374, "relative_activity": 3.065659, "balance": 0.562293, "dry_up": 3.591001, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091061, "annualized_volatility": 0.537639, "from_high_reference": -0.146017, "from_low_reference": 0.552293 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.832333, "fair_value_reference": 11.890641, "structural_low": 8.854, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.096346, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.137122, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.002342, "worst_return": -0.316061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.183663, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.220102, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172015, "worst_return": -0.351487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.189762, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.289698, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.075935, "worst_return": -0.258005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.240843, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.101255, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.009873, "worst_return": -0.296798, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08085, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078255, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.299489, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.292405, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136482, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007856, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015048, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.239079, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017582, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145417, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.183563, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.313269, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102373, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.818, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 159.05, "trend": 14.238933, "fair_value": 14.941692, "relative_strength": 0.090619, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.144049, 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-18.869871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.378107, "energy": 26.363593, "activity_lines": [ 10.175867, 9.902727, 10.650905, 11.085353 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "close": 9.92, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 260.15, "trend": 11.3298, "fair_value": 12.040808, "relative_strength": -22.043428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.556533, "energy": 24.745088, "activity_lines": [ 10.185733, 9.889927, 10.507752, 10.99486 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 11.122, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 208.1, "trend": 11.371, "fair_value": 12.029385, "relative_strength": -13.624838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.167917, "energy": 24.612124, "activity_lines": [ 10.540267, 10.122618, 10.492933, 10.981454 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 10.732, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 208.1, "trend": 11.387867, "fair_value": 12.011, "relative_strength": -15.908456, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.849373, "energy": 20.375108, "activity_lines": [ 10.640667, 10.284364, 10.4518, 10.940228 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 11.916, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 208.1, "trend": 11.39, "fair_value": 12.00141, "relative_strength": -8.348127, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.345463, "energy": 18.148799, "activity_lines": [ 11.0676, 10.642982, 10.536771, 10.974301 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 12.702, "volume": 910, "typical_volume": 246.1, "trend": 11.437067, "fair_value": 11.994013, "relative_strength": -4.786844, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.744809, "energy": 40.936458, "activity_lines": [ 11.702267, 11.093309, 10.70359, 11.058946 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 11.696, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 246.1, "trend": 11.445933, "fair_value": 11.976731, "relative_strength": -11.109681, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.941285, "energy": 42.374438, "activity_lines": [ 11.841467, 11.295418, 10.779581, 11.075652 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 12.872, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 246.0, "trend": 11.5048, "fair_value": 11.961846, "relative_strength": -4.865395, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.067151, "energy": 62.10835, "activity_lines": [ 12.254267, 11.663782, 10.975419, 11.167656 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 13.756, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 184.3, "trend": 11.595067, "fair_value": 11.955167, "relative_strength": -2.493475, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.238019, "energy": 70.100251, "activity_lines": [ 12.845067, 12.1272, 11.253667, 11.312895 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 15.702, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 174.3, "trend": 11.7158, "fair_value": 11.951782, "relative_strength": 13.158777, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 65.405633, "energy": 82.191745, "activity_lines": [ 13.882933, 12.870873, 11.705352, 11.577858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.36, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 174.3, "trend": 11.808, "fair_value": 11.94291, "relative_strength": 7.910099, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.401523, "energy": 92.890858, "activity_lines": [ 14.5544, 13.468727, 12.110524, 11.812968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.75, "volume": 14213, "typical_volume": 807.25, "trend": 11.872, "fair_value": 11.934141, "relative_strength": 5.008951, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.43837, "energy": 86.642593, "activity_lines": [ 14.845333, 13.863673, 12.44061, 12.002774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.162, "volume": 1695, "typical_volume": 892.0, "trend": 11.8642, "fair_value": 11.917538, "relative_strength": -4.26926, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.423275, "energy": 77.418964, "activity_lines": [ 14.403333, 13.882073, 12.603514, 12.086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.726, "volume": 18887, "typical_volume": 1821.35, "trend": 11.837267, "fair_value": 11.902103, "relative_strength": -8.579105, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.117123, "energy": 46.467489, "activity_lines": [ 13.796667, 13.784109, 12.715171, 12.1416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.24, "volume": 10280, "typical_volume": 2312.85, "trend": 11.832467, "fair_value": 11.893897, "relative_strength": -4.849459, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.89994, "energy": 27.696699, "activity_lines": [ 13.43, 13.743345, 12.861467, 12.232099 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.744, "volume": 8374, "typical_volume": 2731.55, "trend": 11.832333, "fair_value": 11.890641, "relative_strength": -4.068028, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.888076, "energy": 26.876027, "activity_lines": [ 13.395467, 13.770145, 13.036048, 12.355424 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }