{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca27b650-7f7d-4174-8c61-bcbc28a3948a", "symbol": "GENM", "name": "Generation Mining Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.47, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.841, "architecture_energy": 18.688, "architecture_maturity": 22.533, "architecture_confidence": 60.974, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.19, "rotation_up": 16.1, "upward_expansion": 11.79, "deceleration": 56.55, "rotation_down": 49.78, "downward_expansion": 66.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.625333, 0.635818, 0.633762, 0.638774 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.67, "trend_reference": 0.6535, "distance_from_trend": 0.025249, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.370673, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.807523, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.13307, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.120421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025249, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012343, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.807523, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057695, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021331, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129484, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.575283, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2783575, "relative_activity": 1.409111, "balance": 0.575283, "dry_up": 1.148647, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097589, "annualized_volatility": 0.619139, "from_high_reference": -0.271739, "from_low_reference": 1.392857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.6535, "fair_value_reference": 0.370673, "structural_low": 0.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.034856, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.028385, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.864865, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.115708, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.053893, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.344828, "worst_return": -0.270833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.048387, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.145529, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 3.344828, "worst_return": -0.520833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.195652, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.114492, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.482759, "worst_return": -0.477273, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.344828, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.72973, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101449, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.206349, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.150943, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044118, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.223881, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112676, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056604, "active": 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"typical_volume": 2156238.95, "trend": 0.661167, "fair_value": 0.367372, "relative_strength": -10.279044, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.684041, "energy": 20.331386, "activity_lines": [ 0.626667, 0.633636, 0.632048, 0.641699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6, "volume": 2059662, "typical_volume": 2035520.4, "trend": 0.654167, "fair_value": 0.368846, "relative_strength": -8.842406, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.107609, "energy": 32.799353, "activity_lines": [ 0.612, 0.628636, 0.6295, 0.637753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.67, "volume": 2783575, "typical_volume": 1975412.4, "trend": 0.6535, "fair_value": 0.370673, "relative_strength": -2.13307, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.840718, "energy": 18.688085, "activity_lines": [ 0.625333, 0.635818, 0.633762, 0.638774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }