{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca36d446-d6ae-4630-93cc-80c1459b37b3", "symbol": "000905", "name": "Xiamen Port Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.052, "architecture_energy": 49.802, "architecture_maturity": 94.124, "architecture_confidence": 67.483, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.79, "rotation_up": 27.73, "upward_expansion": 21.28, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 43.7, "downward_expansion": 71.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.378667, 8.297818, 8.908892, 9.567335 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.54, "trend_reference": 10.530936, "distance_from_trend": -0.189056, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.923988, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07774, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.287089, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.320568, "excess_performance": -0.327968, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189056, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102199, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07774, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.391223, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202871, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131291, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.320568, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.527272, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46261602, "relative_activity": 0.824309, "balance": 0.527272, "dry_up": 1.052147, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075224, "annualized_volatility": 0.285972, "from_high_reference": -0.494423, "from_low_reference": 0.126649 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.530936, "fair_value_reference": 7.923988, "structural_low": 7.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.009983, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": 0.006623, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.157408, "worst_return": -0.143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.048064, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.022022, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.184755, "worst_return": -0.135977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.048349, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.005082, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.122542, "worst_return": -0.072238, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 65.578761, "activity_lines": [ 8.086667, 8.282, 9.137116, 9.855007 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.55, "volume": 57903628, "typical_volume": 57346169.2, "trend": 10.679158, "fair_value": 7.917516, "relative_strength": -16.210535, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.232011, "energy": 61.703678, "activity_lines": [ 8.254, 8.277636, 9.016091, 9.705345 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.54, "volume": 46261602, "typical_volume": 56121656.8, "trend": 10.530936, "fair_value": 7.923988, "relative_strength": -20.287089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.052346, "energy": 49.802141, "activity_lines": [ 8.378667, 8.297818, 8.908892, 9.567335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }