{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca38a1a4-aeed-49d1-be24-25fe3f515c42", "symbol": "XMIN", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Indonesia Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.206, "architecture_energy": 31.308, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.655, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.54, "rotation_up": 27.94, "upward_expansion": 23.03, "deceleration": 46.95, "rotation_down": 30.04, "downward_expansion": 61.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.781667, 7.671436, 7.834448, 8.290387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.89, "trend_reference": 9.038933, "distance_from_trend": -0.127109, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.571961, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.372413, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.460115, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.278134, "excess_performance": -0.449025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127109, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135199, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.372413, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036737, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344601, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026069, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.278134, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.23705, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16586, "relative_activity": 1.066874, "balance": 0.23705, "dry_up": 2.422691, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053281, "annualized_volatility": 0.335703, "from_high_reference": -0.428174, "from_low_reference": 0.173409 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.038933, "fair_value_reference": 12.571961, "structural_low": 6.724, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.01374, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.012571, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.095562, "worst_return": -0.140865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.036159, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.045901, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.192086, "worst_return": -0.208155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.026588, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.10955, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.238529, "worst_return": -0.291959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.009863, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.178415, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.319524, "worst_return": -0.390018, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046163, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042682, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011663, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006033, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027376, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.079788, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017367, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040088, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078518, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.706531, "energy": 62.194402, "activity_lines": [ 7.471867, 7.510145, 8.075029, 8.691329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.92, "volume": 16659, "typical_volume": 10455.9, "trend": 9.431133, "fair_value": 12.713461, "relative_strength": -34.191068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.069969, "energy": 53.693127, "activity_lines": [ 7.607533, 7.5524, 8.006476, 8.585617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.76, "volume": 73620, "typical_volume": 13944.4, "trend": 9.304, "fair_value": 12.665269, "relative_strength": -34.698729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.327049, "energy": 48.818204, "activity_lines": [ 7.663467, 7.581109, 7.936619, 8.477802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.678, "volume": 43791, "typical_volume": 15834.6, "trend": 9.168933, "fair_value": 12.617602, "relative_strength": -35.064885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.547767, "energy": 41.401042, "activity_lines": [ 7.693333, 7.606218, 7.870629, 8.372899 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.89, "volume": 16586, "typical_volume": 15546.35, "trend": 9.038933, "fair_value": 12.571961, "relative_strength": -34.460115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.206296, "energy": 31.307647, "activity_lines": [ 7.781667, 7.671436, 7.834448, 8.290387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }