{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca3a5955-2918-4ac4-b713-0e85437ff5d2", "symbol": "FACT", "name": "The Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.556, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.304, "architecture_energy": 38.187, "architecture_maturity": 4.263, "architecture_confidence": 68.451, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.83, "rotation_up": 14.83, "upward_expansion": 21.1, "deceleration": 53.39, "rotation_down": 62.09, "downward_expansion": 48.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 830.136662, 846.807263, 861.494991, 852.046553 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 839.400024, "trend_reference": 836.646663, "distance_from_trend": 0.003291, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 828.518681, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.013133, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.700224, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.058779, "excess_performance": 0.102488, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003291, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006612, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.013133, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131322, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027002, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078089, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058779, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.1295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 322892, "relative_activity": 0.233915, "balance": 0.1295, "dry_up": 0.323217, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052913, "annualized_volatility": 0.414342, "from_high_reference": -0.187095, "from_low_reference": 0.287226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 836.646663, "fair_value_reference": 828.518681, "structural_low": 652.099976, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.059691, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.058271, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.161869, "worst_return": -0.041671, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.066717, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.099466, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.571383, "worst_return": -0.095865, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.004594, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.062451, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.531581, "worst_return": -0.10743, "sufficient": false }, { 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"energy": 27.403376, "activity_lines": [ 840.276652, 858.684532, 866.777371, 852.84752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 826.099976, "volume": 364566, "typical_volume": 1600435.35, "trend": 837.591663, "fair_value": 825.976301, "relative_strength": -3.709452, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.248097, "energy": 36.523894, "activity_lines": [ 830.859982, 851.05362, 863.442369, 851.929884 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 839.400024, "volume": 322892, "typical_volume": 1380380.7, "trend": 836.646663, "fair_value": 828.518681, "relative_strength": -2.700224, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.3041, "energy": 38.187052, "activity_lines": [ 830.136662, 846.807263, 861.494991, 852.046553 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }