{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca3c9742-3392-4e5b-97cd-f81bfd10de23", "symbol": "688082", "name": "ACM Research (Shanghai), Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.031, "architecture_energy": 27.753, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.1, "rotation_up": 23.01, "upward_expansion": 56.83, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 33.18, "downward_expansion": 20.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 294.462634, 320.600762, 286.678942, 255.800846 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 288.0, "trend_reference": 224.318353, "distance_from_trend": 0.28389, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 132.452005, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.174373, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 45.899524, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.525424, "excess_performance": 0.568628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.28389, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.303679, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.174373, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.801813, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.458995, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.484753, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.525424, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.721945, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40153636, "relative_activity": 1.266052, "balance": 2.721945, "dry_up": 1.302331, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.223455, "annualized_volatility": 0.749976, "from_high_reference": -0.35222, "from_low_reference": 1.561822 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 224.318353, "fair_value_reference": 132.452005, "structural_low": 138.559998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.020635, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.034357, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.265389, "worst_return": -0.066918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.107653, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.107241, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.985014, "worst_return": -0.045073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.078113, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.07103, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.472926, "worst_return": -0.160539, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 127.69484, "relative_strength": 109.449339, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.361614, "energy": 87.149375, "activity_lines": [ 380.753662, 332.49802, 264.239683, 236.521088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 299.789063, "volume": 43244508, "typical_volume": 27419884.0, "trend": 213.066677, "fair_value": 128.919809, "relative_strength": 66.792759, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.537507, "energy": 63.998603, "activity_lines": [ 357.285933, 334.6491, 271.732778, 242.378853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 299.280273, "volume": 44546063, "typical_volume": 28951240.25, "trend": 217.47602, "fair_value": 130.149343, "relative_strength": 61.277435, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.332853, "energy": 44.270673, "activity_lines": [ 333.973338, 334.169872, 278.570041, 247.94102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 271.890015, "volume": 37272778, "typical_volume": 30259730.35, "trend": 220.586687, "fair_value": 131.23965, "relative_strength": 43.722044, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.120262, "energy": 28.63266, "activity_lines": [ 306.828638, 326.454591, 282.139278, 251.4516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 288.0, "volume": 40153636, "typical_volume": 31715639.75, "trend": 224.318353, "fair_value": 132.452005, "relative_strength": 45.899524, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.030906, "energy": 27.75296, "activity_lines": [ 294.462634, 320.600762, 286.678942, 255.800846 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }