{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca40481c-e006-45d6-b36c-d293880e5d55", "symbol": "DCMSRIND", "name": "DCM Shriram Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.521, "architecture_energy": 40.353, "architecture_maturity": 16.249, "architecture_confidence": 61.833, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.59, "rotation_up": 58.82, "upward_expansion": 75.07, "deceleration": 50.41, "rotation_down": 12.23, "downward_expansion": 10.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.804667, 39.90943, 39.81357, 39.33145 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 43.07, "trend_reference": 39.044181, "distance_from_trend": 0.103109, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 146.17941, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.705362, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.93267, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.081889, "excess_performance": 0.125598, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103109, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.437368, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.705362, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011683, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.489327, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10765, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081889, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.948502, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1140826, "relative_activity": 1.412631, "balance": 0.948502, "dry_up": 1.334862, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092599, "annualized_volatility": 0.401407, "from_high_reference": -0.763222, "from_low_reference": 0.350157 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.044181, "fair_value_reference": 146.17941, "structural_low": 31.9, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.01234, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.012772, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.058302, "worst_return": -0.719561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.104316, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.112545, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.026679, "worst_return": -0.773864, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.212109, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.163184, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.038906, "worst_return": -0.768436, 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"down", "direction": -54.450122, "energy": 38.14213, "activity_lines": [ 38.096577, 38.779321, 39.004652, 39.962175 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.119999, "volume": 2187458, "typical_volume": 788109.1, "trend": 44.351181, "fair_value": 148.294997, "relative_strength": -56.704736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.677606, "energy": 26.135391, "activity_lines": [ 38.745521, 38.837222, 39.169531, 39.422378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.990002, "volume": 872271, "typical_volume": 785777.6, "trend": 40.241514, "fair_value": 147.836105, "relative_strength": -55.914877, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.918234, "energy": 11.635634, "activity_lines": [ 39.276883, 38.910592, 39.306696, 39.141012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.860001, "volume": 1929617, "typical_volume": 825663.05, "trend": 39.752848, "fair_value": 147.385478, "relative_strength": -53.791074, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.502641, "energy": 7.105221, "activity_lines": [ 39.622825, 39.070863, 39.413908, 39.116398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.259998, "volume": 369369, "typical_volume": 799743.0, "trend": 39.243848, "fair_value": 146.766938, "relative_strength": -54.406972, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.521387, "energy": 5.554212, "activity_lines": [ 39.636666, 39.128283, 39.444882, 39.084601 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.07, "volume": 1140826, "typical_volume": 807589.55, "trend": 39.044181, "fair_value": 146.17941, "relative_strength": -48.93267, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.52127, "energy": 40.35283, "activity_lines": [ 40.804667, 39.90943, 39.81357, 39.33145 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }