{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca592f36-9cb8-4dc7-85de-7fd1071e320b", "symbol": "NCLHN", "name": "Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 81.565, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.064, "architecture_energy": 23.95, "architecture_maturity": 31.684, "architecture_confidence": 56.08, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.14, "rotation_up": 9.96, "upward_expansion": 7.69, "deceleration": 65.32, "rotation_down": 50.87, "downward_expansion": 64.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 331.680664, 339.249272, 332.500428, 336.391892 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 329.799988, "trend_reference": 346.356333, "distance_from_trend": -0.047801, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 370.224871, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.10919, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.70948, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.180621, "excess_performance": -0.125954, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047801, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031124, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.10919, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102865, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147095, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.189007, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.180621, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.008072, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8740, "relative_activity": 0.584109, "balance": 2.008072, "dry_up": 0.421809, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074108, "annualized_volatility": 0.483562, "from_high_reference": -0.3404, "from_low_reference": 0.293333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 346.356333, "fair_value_reference": 370.224871, "structural_low": 255.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.070086, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.070398, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.325758, "worst_return": -0.337549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.132045, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.180206, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.799331, "worst_return": -0.425813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.189608, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.216589, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.841621, "worst_return": -0.309599, 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"typical_volume": 15184.55, "trend": 357.827001, "fair_value": 370.165064, "relative_strength": -11.832479, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.664852, "energy": 23.344978, "activity_lines": [ 353.460004, 340.293637, 332.979571, 342.071613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 342.0, "volume": 785, "typical_volume": 15134.5, "trend": 355.310001, "fair_value": 370.07532, "relative_strength": -13.756017, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.0918, "energy": 18.985948, "activity_lines": [ 350.09467, 343.305819, 333.448619, 341.050516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 335.410004, "volume": 374, "typical_volume": 14395.3, "trend": 353.004667, "fair_value": 369.934487, "relative_strength": -14.366408, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.581876, "energy": 9.115953, "activity_lines": [ 344.199337, 344.192547, 333.666238, 339.766645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 321.0, "volume": 15347, "typical_volume": 14808.2, "trend": 350.104001, "fair_value": 370.027435, "relative_strength": -17.746631, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.289922, "energy": 21.284256, "activity_lines": [ 334.773336, 341.266365, 332.614286, 337.701828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 329.799988, "volume": 8740, "typical_volume": 14962.95, "trend": 346.356333, "fair_value": 370.224871, "relative_strength": -14.70948, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.064324, "energy": 23.949996, "activity_lines": [ 331.680664, 339.249272, 332.500428, 336.391892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }