{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca605b3e-e01d-418b-9f15-24cd8504fdf4", "symbol": "002263", "name": "Zhejiang Great Southeast Corp.Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.076, "architecture_energy": 80.661, "architecture_maturity": 18.294, "architecture_confidence": 87.033, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.52, "rotation_up": 10.6, "upward_expansion": 19.91, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 72.88, "downward_expansion": 93.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.895333, 3.079455, 3.466762, 3.613763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.04, "trend_reference": 3.701333, "distance_from_trend": -0.178674, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.893077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.872348, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.126437, "excess_performance": -0.133837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178674, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017953, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050784, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.488794, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198723, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181414, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126437, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.092292, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 263998991, "relative_activity": 0.362916, "balance": 1.092292, "dry_up": 0.367211, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125253, "annualized_volatility": 0.615097, "from_high_reference": -0.431776, "from_low_reference": 0.1875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.701333, "fair_value_reference": 2.893077, "structural_low": 2.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.008403, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.020767, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.244565, "worst_return": -0.095023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.02157, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.447674, "worst_return": -0.186508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.098002, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.056733, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.248996, "worst_return": -0.209302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.139151, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051576, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002994, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017442, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121212, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", 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{ "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.24, "volume": 62140964, "typical_volume": 717490417.1, "trend": 3.784333, "fair_value": 2.885064, "relative_strength": -25.802897, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.039434, "energy": 39.953098, "activity_lines": [ 3.622667, 3.758727, 3.954381, 3.898624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.9, "volume": 320503681, "typical_volume": 725050207.55, "trend": 3.766333, "fair_value": 2.887949, "relative_strength": -30.06312, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.433893, "energy": 57.319306, "activity_lines": [ 3.350667, 3.583091, 3.853524, 3.84157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.72, "volume": 278741595, "typical_volume": 729179973.7, "trend": 3.746667, "fair_value": 2.888846, "relative_strength": -27.084911, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.295051, "energy": 73.947929, "activity_lines": [ 3.080667, 3.395273, 3.73781, 3.774065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.75, "volume": 281570018, "typical_volume": 727949527.65, "trend": 3.727, "fair_value": 2.889295, "relative_strength": -25.797455, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.452992, "energy": 87.741085, "activity_lines": [ 2.890667, 3.242545, 3.629286, 3.709763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.91, "volume": 244184492, "typical_volume": 726350611.75, "trend": 3.711, "fair_value": 2.890769, "relative_strength": -19.754275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.259838, "energy": 84.98214, "activity_lines": [ 2.85, 3.140545, 3.540095, 3.657054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.04, "volume": 263998991, "typical_volume": 727439091.65, "trend": 3.701333, "fair_value": 2.893077, "relative_strength": -19.872348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.076276, "energy": 80.661066, "activity_lines": [ 2.895333, 3.079455, 3.466762, 3.613763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }