{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca618dd2-4a60-4a5a-aeaf-18d57307e4a2", "symbol": "HCT", "name": "Holista Colltech Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -2.211, "architecture_energy": 12.778, "architecture_maturity": 26.718, "architecture_confidence": 57.519, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.28, "rotation_up": 35.99, "upward_expansion": 38.33, "deceleration": 35.68, "rotation_down": 32.81, "downward_expansion": 22.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.075667, 0.075927, 0.073424, 0.071931 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.067, "trend_reference": 0.072367, "distance_from_trend": -0.074159, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.041814, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.60233, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.821393, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.202381, "excess_performance": -0.266087, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074159, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054443, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.60233, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171017, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208214, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.202381, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.794007, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121564, "relative_activity": 0.467601, "balance": 1.794007, "dry_up": 0.430551, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092997, "annualized_volatility": 0.685227, "from_high_reference": -0.390909, "from_low_reference": 0.34 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.072367, "fair_value_reference": 0.041814, "structural_low": 0.05, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.101081, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.6, "worst_return": -0.214286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.129032, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.101122, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.1, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.386111, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 3.583333, "worst_return": -0.642857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.347826, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.636364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.233333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.023529, "active": false }, { 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0.08, "volume": 11786, "typical_volume": 247305.9, "trend": 0.073167, "fair_value": 0.041013, "relative_strength": -1.798646, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.293922, "energy": 57.400228, "activity_lines": [ 0.079133, 0.076745, 0.072733, 0.071871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.08, "volume": 209391, "typical_volume": 254619.05, "trend": 0.0729, "fair_value": 0.041455, "relative_strength": -3.277198, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.861244, "energy": 55.825901, "activity_lines": [ 0.08, 0.0776, 0.073733, 0.072312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.067, "volume": 121564, "typical_volume": 259973.9, "trend": 0.072367, "fair_value": 0.041814, "relative_strength": -20.821393, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.210958, "energy": 12.777849, "activity_lines": [ 0.075667, 0.075927, 0.073424, 0.071931 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }