{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca64855c-0965-4a77-9ba4-9c116a0459d2", "symbol": "00636K", "name": "Cathay FTSE China A50 ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.692, "architecture_energy": 15.602, "architecture_maturity": 44.948, "architecture_confidence": 75.506, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.35, "rotation_up": 16.77, "upward_expansion": 41.37, "deceleration": 86.6, "rotation_down": 39.7, "downward_expansion": 35.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.841333, 8.886909, 8.957143, 8.891806 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.9, "trend_reference": 8.799, "distance_from_trend": 0.011479, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.493182, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.187746, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.510784, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.042155, "excess_performance": -0.337157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011479, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016951, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.187746, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055362, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245108, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021577, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042155, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.195652, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000, "relative_activity": 1.098901, "balance": 1.195652, "dry_up": 1.098901, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024719, "annualized_volatility": 0.127728, "from_high_reference": -0.041981, "from_low_reference": 0.183511 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.799, "fair_value_reference": 7.493182, "structural_low": 8.24, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030624, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.043528, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.042938, "worst_return": 0.001167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.040265, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.247129, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.06993, "worst_return": 0.010601, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.081272, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.566546, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081272, "worst_return": 0.081272, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.122667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004711, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023041, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032672, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006689, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006787, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-01-19", "close": 5.77, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-01-26", "close": 5.91, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-02-02", "close": 5.79, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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8.767333, "fair_value": 7.451562, "relative_strength": -29.399122, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.578216, "energy": 25.26361, "activity_lines": [ 8.950667, 9.037636, 8.979714, 8.880172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.69, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 915.0, "trend": 8.774, "fair_value": 7.461163, "relative_strength": -25.549656, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.42282, "energy": 23.277953, "activity_lines": [ 8.848, 8.966182, 8.963476, 8.875183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.94, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 910.0, "trend": 8.787667, "fair_value": 7.472538, "relative_strength": -24.502127, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.190262, "energy": 22.294416, "activity_lines": [ 8.853333, 8.947818, 8.970143, 8.885892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.77, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 910.0, "trend": 8.790667, "fair_value": 7.482443, "relative_strength": -24.353494, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.649248, "energy": 19.819348, "activity_lines": [ 8.818, 8.903818, 8.958048, 8.884753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.9, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 910.0, "trend": 8.799, "fair_value": 7.493182, "relative_strength": -24.510784, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.692012, "energy": 15.602464, "activity_lines": [ 8.841333, 8.886909, 8.957143, 8.891806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }