{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca66cc8c-b11d-45c5-864f-ec4e94f36da3", "symbol": "BHMG", "name": "BH Macro Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.152, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.456, "architecture_energy": 38.722, "architecture_maturity": 2.659, "architecture_confidence": 61.261, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.26, "rotation_up": 18.27, "upward_expansion": 15.47, "deceleration": 45.86, "rotation_down": 57.95, "downward_expansion": 54.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 419.133333, 421.6, 423.588095, 423.903226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 419.5, "trend_reference": 422.983333, "distance_from_trend": -0.008235, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 386.310897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.085913, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.205343, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.024419, "excess_performance": -0.075654, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008235, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01936, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.085913, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032315, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062053, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054623, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024419, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.725049, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2114830, "relative_activity": 0.850328, "balance": 0.725049, "dry_up": 1.067752, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020977, "annualized_volatility": 0.122475, "from_high_reference": -0.057303, "from_low_reference": 0.083979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 422.983333, "fair_value_reference": 386.310897, "structural_low": 409.178009, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.003326, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038281, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.080475, "worst_return": -0.026862, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.008961, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017089, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.038259, "worst_return": -0.05618, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.073861, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.110825, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034301, "worst_return": -0.182022, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058743, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035802, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025773, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080475, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.042199, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": 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2484150.05, "trend": 421.2, "fair_value": 385.025641, "relative_strength": -3.49091, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.234188, "energy": 8.872091, "activity_lines": [ 424.566667, 425.545455, 425.385714, 424.651613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 417.5, "volume": 4618487, "typical_volume": 2591565.05, "trend": 421.933333, "fair_value": 385.387821, "relative_strength": -5.63291, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.475279, "energy": 11.1893, "activity_lines": [ 422.033333, 423.854545, 424.640476, 424.412903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 417.0, "volume": 2328194, "typical_volume": 2550335.65, "trend": 422.466667, "fair_value": 385.801282, "relative_strength": -6.663865, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.830095, "energy": 34.902034, "activity_lines": [ 419.833333, 422.481818, 423.95, 424.094624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 419.5, "volume": 2114830, "typical_volume": 2487074.3, "trend": 422.983333, "fair_value": 386.310897, "relative_strength": -6.205343, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.455981, "energy": 38.721788, "activity_lines": [ 419.133333, 421.6, 423.588095, 423.903226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }