{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca69f5b7-163b-4513-bb18-82a6766befe6", "symbol": "SNN", "name": "Smith & Nephew SNATS Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.629, "architecture_energy": 16.355, "architecture_maturity": 65.29, "architecture_confidence": 64.929, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.7, "rotation_up": 27.25, "upward_expansion": 19.25, "deceleration": 41.94, "rotation_down": 27.15, "downward_expansion": 53.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.692, 30.571455, 30.61181, 31.136699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 30.11, "trend_reference": 31.908309, "distance_from_trend": -0.056359, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.221525, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066916, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.959468, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.118804, "excess_performance": -0.244429, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056359, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021036, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.066916, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001063, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189595, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001518, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.118804, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.750577, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8897980, "relative_activity": 1.367708, "balance": 0.750577, "dry_up": 1.482225, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053534, "annualized_volatility": 0.235734, "from_high_reference": -0.205435, "from_low_reference": 0.054456 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.908309, "fair_value_reference": 28.221525, "structural_low": 28.555, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -8.2e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008184, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.108444, "worst_return": -0.119394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.015638, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.010321, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.217923, "worst_return": -0.159361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03355, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.092826, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.239118, "worst_return": -0.271828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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6343863, "typical_volume": 5470779.45, "trend": 32.158131, "fair_value": 28.137224, "relative_strength": -16.631183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.393433, "energy": 28.362897, "activity_lines": [ 30.356667, 30.290545, 30.803647, 31.489577 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.59, "volume": 10949328, "typical_volume": 5843300.65, "trend": 32.100214, "fair_value": 28.149174, "relative_strength": -15.415733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.513605, "energy": 23.482507, "activity_lines": [ 30.444, 30.362182, 30.715182, 31.388407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.57, "volume": 6936432, "typical_volume": 5845373.3, "trend": 32.034406, "fair_value": 28.163598, "relative_strength": -14.711746, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.439893, "energy": 19.918255, "activity_lines": [ 30.523333, 30.418545, 30.652223, 31.289683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.56, "volume": 11788248, "typical_volume": 6202031.65, "trend": 32.006852, "fair_value": 28.196795, "relative_strength": -12.671356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.226492, "energy": 14.822857, "activity_lines": [ 30.9, 30.636182, 30.698908, 31.259077 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.11, "volume": 8897980, "typical_volume": 6505759.25, "trend": 31.908309, "fair_value": 28.221525, "relative_strength": -18.959468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.629225, "energy": 16.354739, "activity_lines": [ 30.692, 30.571455, 30.61181, 31.136699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }