{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca6c5ae4-8580-4866-86da-d413642c9824", "symbol": "RDW", "name": "Redwire Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -8.92, "architecture_energy": 17.916, "architecture_maturity": 23.783, "architecture_confidence": 50.298, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.78, "rotation_up": 19.98, "upward_expansion": 17.06, "deceleration": 62.28, "rotation_down": 56.36, "downward_expansion": 44.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.372, 10.822545, 12.316714, 11.89486 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.59, "trend_reference": 11.395333, "distance_from_trend": 0.192593, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.878013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.530748, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 22.823092, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.353586, "excess_performance": 0.227961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.192593, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16362, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.530748, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145777, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.228231, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.296915, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.353586, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.11743, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125434108, "relative_activity": 0.807556, "balance": 1.11743, "dry_up": 0.581997, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.286006, "annualized_volatility": 1.302918, "from_high_reference": -0.489865, "from_low_reference": 1.790554 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.395333, "fair_value_reference": 8.878013, "structural_low": 7.43, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.15748, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.112952, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.621838, "worst_return": -0.030534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.33871, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.280399, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.129161, "worst_return": 0.091603, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.428762, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.096738, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.925094, "worst_return": 0.076613, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.684093, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.402494, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.072581, "worst_return": 0.295606, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072593, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.802581, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.269486, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.491345, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.508585, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.273061, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012236, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.314254, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.361821, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.550165, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.375071, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.231653, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.576566, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.2, "volume": 1012596, "typical_volume": 1045113.25, "trend": 2.991667, "fair_value": 4.706408, "relative_strength": 7.598247, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.474483, "energy": 56.174297, "activity_lines": [ 3.386, 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.410004, "energy": 34.202286, "activity_lines": [ 10.207333, 12.752, 12.797143, 12.088473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.69, "volume": 76926644, "typical_volume": 153094039.1, "trend": 11.322, "fair_value": 8.780192, "relative_strength": -18.655617, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.389849, "energy": 37.045179, "activity_lines": [ 9.422667, 11.697273, 12.482571, 11.921978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.62, "volume": 76820179, "typical_volume": 153050266.1, "trend": 11.308333, "fair_value": 8.813718, "relative_strength": -18.998779, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.459791, "energy": 43.571243, "activity_lines": [ 8.992, 10.727455, 12.160667, 11.747656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.59, "volume": 125434108, "typical_volume": 155325676.45, "trend": 11.395333, "fair_value": 8.878013, "relative_strength": 22.823092, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.919664, "energy": 17.916221, "activity_lines": [ 10.372, 10.822545, 12.316714, 11.89486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }