{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca6e368a-2f5b-47f1-af96-508ecbe18ed3", "symbol": "601801", "name": "Anhui Xinhua Media Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.724, "architecture_energy": 28.056, "architecture_maturity": 91.984, "architecture_confidence": 70.367, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.89, "rotation_up": 32.06, "upward_expansion": 21.66, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 20.16, "downward_expansion": 55.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.396667, 5.23965, 5.38358, 5.640415 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.48, "trend_reference": 6.004137, "distance_from_trend": -0.087296, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.536936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161687, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.856052, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.206946, "excess_performance": -0.163743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087296, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071181, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161687, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060092, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118561, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037708, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.206946, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.920016, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62040174, "relative_activity": 1.424331, "balance": 0.920016, "dry_up": 1.487339, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059897, "annualized_volatility": 0.267693, "from_high_reference": -0.248285, "from_low_reference": 0.161093 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.004137, "fair_value_reference": 6.536936, "structural_low": 4.71969, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.035892, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.013521, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.242424, "worst_return": -0.163992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.058371, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.048261, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.304461, "worst_return": -0.076159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.076682, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.000432, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.699571, "worst_return": -0.075207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 5.046367, 5.120784, 5.463591, 5.764098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.24, "volume": 59023538, "typical_volume": 43562688.3, "trend": 6.066943, "fair_value": 6.564793, "relative_strength": -13.915996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.989558, "energy": 53.225005, "activity_lines": [ 5.127902, 5.118709, 5.412048, 5.707801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.58, "volume": 71213822, "typical_volume": 42798474.1, "trend": 6.037535, "fair_value": 6.550011, "relative_strength": -8.272167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.613968, "energy": 31.854882, "activity_lines": [ 5.306667, 5.188089, 5.399695, 5.676385 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.48, "volume": 62040174, "typical_volume": 43557417.55, "trend": 6.004137, "fair_value": 6.536936, "relative_strength": -11.856052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.723705, "energy": 28.055855, "activity_lines": [ 5.396667, 5.23965, 5.38358, 5.640415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }