{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca6ec075-3c7f-4bc5-be0d-57c0cf7dca26", "symbol": "MHO", "name": "M/I Homes Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.618, "architecture_energy": 32.302, "architecture_maturity": 41.796, "architecture_confidence": 55.648, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.44, "rotation_up": 37.24, "upward_expansion": 63.47, "deceleration": 67.31, "rotation_down": 24.96, "downward_expansion": 15.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 149.356, 150.323636, 144.087714, 140.422043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 151.99, "trend_reference": 137.583667, "distance_from_trend": 0.10471, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 129.085, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.177441, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.651781, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.071408, "excess_performance": -0.054216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10471, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044083, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.177441, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114812, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081602, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071408, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.387706, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1208936, "relative_activity": 1.04647, "balance": 2.387706, "dry_up": 0.994085, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066976, "annualized_volatility": 0.323998, "from_high_reference": -0.071306, "from_low_reference": 0.301507 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 137.583667, "fair_value_reference": 129.085, "structural_low": 116.78, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006334, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019261, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.385497, "worst_return": -0.171949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022608, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.013982, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.534275, "worst_return": -0.304796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.031195, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.108663, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.478471, "worst_return": -0.345926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113531, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0712, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054649, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064719, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110249, "active": false }, { "regime": 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137.33, "volume": 1089716, "typical_volume": 1182189.4, "trend": 132.083333, "fair_value": 125.562628, "relative_strength": -5.681611, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.258147, "energy": 3.938739, "activity_lines": [ 131.808, 130.381455, 129.962524, 131.135398 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 141.33, "volume": 916163, "typical_volume": 1191958.4, "trend": 132.505667, "fair_value": 125.966474, "relative_strength": -3.570597, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.689878, "energy": 27.655811, "activity_lines": [ 135.453333, 132.662909, 130.873524, 131.731957 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 149.09, "volume": 1347813, "typical_volume": 1160059.15, "trend": 133.119667, "fair_value": 126.399423, "relative_strength": 0.604704, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.054353, "energy": 56.705182, "activity_lines": [ 141.054667, 135.996909, 132.486048, 132.801914 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 163.0, "volume": 2172105, "typical_volume": 1193190.8, "trend": 133.966667, "fair_value": 126.885385, "relative_strength": 12.253387, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.481961, "energy": 85.993193, "activity_lines": [ 149.442, 141.406, 135.350048, 134.729677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 156.84, "volume": 1034237, "typical_volume": 1170214.8, "trend": 134.742, "fair_value": 127.373333, "relative_strength": 5.477435, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.554096, "energy": 84.329, "activity_lines": [ 153.564, 145.029273, 137.526714, 136.205376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 147.32, "volume": 1145167, "typical_volume": 1185375.8, "trend": 135.128, "fair_value": 127.728013, "relative_strength": -2.249983, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.789439, "energy": 78.175806, "activity_lines": [ 152.831333, 146.499818, 138.762143, 137.01686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 149.53, "volume": 1068774, "typical_volume": 1188918.05, "trend": 135.857333, "fair_value": 128.101795, "relative_strength": 0.604623, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.099896, "energy": 68.855909, "activity_lines": [ 152.169333, 148.058909, 140.189667, 137.946022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 149.83, "volume": 989062, "typical_volume": 1163424.3, "trend": 136.552333, "fair_value": 128.424231, "relative_strength": 1.314983, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.693454, "energy": 45.217495, "activity_lines": [ 151.060667, 149.351455, 141.610667, 138.847484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 146.13, "volume": 1326901, "typical_volume": 1166097.5, "trend": 137.162, "fair_value": 128.736026, "relative_strength": -2.222443, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.155785, "energy": 29.432682, "activity_lines": [ 148.669333, 149.453091, 142.611619, 139.465398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 151.99, "volume": 1208936, "typical_volume": 1155251.4, "trend": 137.583667, "fair_value": 129.085, "relative_strength": -1.651781, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.618319, "energy": 32.302044, "activity_lines": [ 149.356, 150.323636, 144.087714, 140.422043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }