{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca789bb0-0e35-4618-b2f4-cc5cfe2cd958", "symbol": "EDUC", "name": "Educational Development Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 55.11, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.841, "architecture_energy": 14.346, "architecture_maturity": 51.883, "architecture_confidence": 70.438, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.51, "rotation_up": 24.97, "upward_expansion": 54.75, "deceleration": 86.19, "rotation_down": 34.94, "downward_expansion": 20.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.418667, 1.45, 1.444333, 1.423714 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.39, "trend_reference": 1.404773, "distance_from_trend": -0.010517, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.534507, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094172, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.808339, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.02963, "excess_performance": -0.157824, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010517, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02956, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094172, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050751, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108083, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015742, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02963, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.201692, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 567870, "relative_activity": 0.995345, "balance": 0.201692, "dry_up": 2.48703, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113475, "annualized_volatility": 0.270275, "from_high_reference": -0.244565, "from_low_reference": 0.383085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.404773, "fair_value_reference": 1.534507, "structural_low": 1.23, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.044183, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.000597, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.210526, "worst_return": -0.192308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.047711, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.084734, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.093567, "worst_return": -0.580806, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.096154, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.169344, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.187135, "worst_return": -0.569892, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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1.428051, 1.410006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.52, "volume": 2567265, "typical_volume": 309372.4, "trend": 1.396107, "fair_value": 1.541687, "relative_strength": -3.778366, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.013418, "energy": 50.193658, "activity_lines": [ 1.514, 1.479455, 1.439798, 1.418386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.47, "volume": 2865628, "typical_volume": 451174.5, "trend": 1.400773, "fair_value": 1.541174, "relative_strength": -2.685063, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.911313, "energy": 42.52072, "activity_lines": [ 1.508, 1.480364, 1.446164, 1.423154 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.45, "volume": 1325189, "typical_volume": 506010.65, "trend": 1.404773, "fair_value": 1.537904, "relative_strength": -2.230729, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.756798, "energy": 25.84705, "activity_lines": [ 1.487333, 1.477455, 1.450106, 1.426329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.38, "volume": 916973, "typical_volume": 547714.0, "trend": 1.405773, "fair_value": 1.535853, "relative_strength": -7.170842, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.485324, "energy": 11.690728, "activity_lines": [ 1.446, 1.462545, 1.44681, 1.424731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.39, "volume": 567870, "typical_volume": 570525.8, "trend": 1.404773, "fair_value": 1.534507, "relative_strength": -10.808339, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.841437, "energy": 14.346367, "activity_lines": [ 1.418667, 1.45, 1.444333, 1.423714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }