{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca79e6a8-5d7a-4383-ad81-1612d7e050f6", "symbol": "OR", "name": "OR Royalties Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.271, "architecture_energy": 60.057, "architecture_maturity": 25.633, "architecture_confidence": 92.39, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.51, "rotation_up": 21.88, "upward_expansion": 11.21, "deceleration": 45.85, "rotation_down": 58.8, "downward_expansion": 84.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.747334, 43.327147, 46.006172, 48.208077 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46.080002, "trend_reference": 51.208594, "distance_from_trend": -0.100151, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.055799, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.394007, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.206659, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.155956, "excess_performance": -0.276377, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100151, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026111, "read": "Falling" 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38.580002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.010795, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023782, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.231587, "worst_return": -0.125371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.088631, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.110751, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.163799, "worst_return": -0.033269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.266948, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.188801, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.271632, "worst_return": 0.176318, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 41.48, "volume": 2936900, "typical_volume": 1687270.0, "trend": 52.371123, "fair_value": 32.450432, "relative_strength": -25.004351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.511942, "energy": 81.252267, "activity_lines": [ 44.454234, 46.196825, 48.852937, 50.723617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.650002, "volume": 2298200, "typical_volume": 1718460.0, "trend": 51.997373, "fair_value": 32.583708, "relative_strength": -28.01209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.827129, "energy": 88.838261, "activity_lines": [ 42.549227, 44.7396, 47.758798, 49.9029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.130001, "volume": 1944000, "typical_volume": 1718400.0, "trend": 51.68226, "fair_value": 32.728218, "relative_strength": -25.34139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.733085, "energy": 86.188925, "activity_lines": [ 41.641157, 43.784436, 46.924082, 49.201779 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.66, "volume": 2097200, "typical_volume": 1719225.0, "trend": 51.460122, "fair_value": 32.876937, "relative_strength": -23.849663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.084055, "energy": 85.060794, "activity_lines": [ 41.326667, 43.086517, 46.222214, 48.555182 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.080002, "volume": 1704100, "typical_volume": 1659505.0, "trend": 51.208594, "fair_value": 33.055799, "relative_strength": -18.206659, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.270824, "energy": 60.056699, "activity_lines": [ 42.747334, 43.327147, 46.006172, 48.208077 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }