{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca7c4614-21ef-4e0f-98cc-dd0ed4d7048a", "symbol": "002835", "name": "Shenzhen TVT Digital Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.492, "architecture_energy": 55.409, "architecture_maturity": 98.31, "architecture_confidence": 91.25, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.56, "rotation_up": 28.49, "upward_expansion": 10.07, "deceleration": 60.85, "rotation_down": 47.95, "downward_expansion": 81.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.685333, 11.704398, 12.527793, 13.406617 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.26, "trend_reference": 14.576135, "distance_from_trend": -0.158899, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.406836, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.25275, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.329231, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.292556, "excess_performance": -0.299956, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158899, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099143, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.25275, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167833, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025708, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.292556, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.350243, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15912833, "relative_activity": 1.551201, "balance": 0.350243, "dry_up": 1.489727, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076035, "annualized_volatility": 0.298625, "from_high_reference": -0.39367, "from_low_reference": 0.130996 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.576135, "fair_value_reference": 16.406836, "structural_low": 10.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.03403, "positive_rate": 0.681818, "directional_follow_through": 0.318182, "median_excess_return": -0.019251, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.277778, "worst_return": -0.144609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.051243, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.020652, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.5538, "worst_return": -0.200664, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.139977, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.173054, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.539503, "worst_return": -0.232794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01052, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013049, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024242, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001994, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03452, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", 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19216126, "typical_volume": 9893590.8, "trend": 14.863468, "fair_value": 16.488865, "relative_strength": -32.715318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.57887, "energy": 69.490545, "activity_lines": [ 11.308667, 11.711727, 12.841212, 13.762548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.8, "volume": 12958112, "typical_volume": 9977021.4, "trend": 14.713468, "fair_value": 16.440866, "relative_strength": -25.295686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.167962, "energy": 63.884944, "activity_lines": [ 11.434667, 11.644387, 12.650812, 13.564905 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.26, "volume": 15912833, "typical_volume": 10258398.05, "trend": 14.576135, "fair_value": 16.406836, "relative_strength": -25.329231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.491623, "energy": 55.408531, "activity_lines": [ 11.685333, 11.704398, 12.527793, 13.406617 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }