{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca84eb16-01c6-4940-b5fe-93635a533c3c", "symbol": "JDG", "name": "Judges Scientific plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.05, "architecture_energy": 25.839, "architecture_maturity": 37.435, "architecture_confidence": 78.59, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.29, "rotation_up": 15.93, "upward_expansion": 11.88, "deceleration": 54.11, "rotation_down": 54.54, "downward_expansion": 66.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 4483.333333, 4545.772291, 4566.929526, 4548.173831 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4250.0, "trend_reference": 4611.845985, "distance_from_trend": -0.07846, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7760.431629, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.45235, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.228693, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.13602, "excess_performance": -0.187255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07846, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061061, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.45235, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058747, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242287, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014937, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.13602, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.437867, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33900, "relative_activity": 0.67263, "balance": 0.437867, "dry_up": 1.239887, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088647, "annualized_volatility": 0.385246, "from_high_reference": -0.392714, "from_low_reference": 0.221489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4611.845985, "fair_value_reference": 7760.431629, "structural_low": 3479.360738, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.06087, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.073295, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.160763, "worst_return": -0.139655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.057536, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.02749, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197368, "worst_return": -0.23128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.074595, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.068162, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.331283, 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"Developing", "return": -0.040404, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002196, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083744, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147826, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.138298, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096305, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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4569.162623, 4606.520183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4550.0, "volume": 49002, "typical_volume": 67025.9, "trend": 4736.074355, "fair_value": 7853.619186, "relative_strength": -19.03318, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.531936, "energy": 12.5265, "activity_lines": [ 4668.333333, 4599.99679, 4574.824534, 4592.689562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4590.0, "volume": 46016, "typical_volume": 62909.05, "trend": 4701.108892, "fair_value": 7822.300726, "relative_strength": -18.47929, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.398744, "energy": 6.711061, "activity_lines": [ 4645.0, 4597.271791, 4585.577467, 4583.26541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4570.0, "volume": 121039, "typical_volume": 56030.35, "trend": 4662.810585, "fair_value": 7791.622942, "relative_strength": -19.078344, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.944936, "energy": 4.860317, "activity_lines": [ 4615.666667, 4599.43898, 4592.564822, 4574.806772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4250.0, "volume": 33900, "typical_volume": 50399.15, "trend": 4611.845985, "fair_value": 7760.431629, "relative_strength": -24.228693, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.050361, "energy": 25.83916, "activity_lines": [ 4483.333333, 4545.772291, 4566.929526, 4548.173831 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }