{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ca92043d-0a7f-4dcf-bca7-71368fe69710", "symbol": "GOAT", "name": "VanEck Morningstar Global Wide Moat UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.214, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 94.25, "architecture_energy": 91.318, "architecture_maturity": 11.563, "architecture_confidence": 59.206, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.02, "rotation_up": 87.64, "upward_expansion": 97.9, "deceleration": 39.01, "rotation_down": 8.47, "downward_expansion": 19.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.422334, 31.938909, 31.501857, 31.31414 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 33.455002, "trend_reference": 31.279833, "distance_from_trend": 0.069539, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.684423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208441, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.480075, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.052872, "excess_performance": -0.11802, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069539, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008805, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208441, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05807, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074801, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025737, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052872, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.910661, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5405, "relative_activity": 0.694164, "balance": 1.910661, "dry_up": 0.753145, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018153, "annualized_volatility": 0.147185, "from_high_reference": -0.000299, "from_low_reference": 0.153223 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.279833, "fair_value_reference": 27.684423, "structural_low": 29.01, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout 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"2026-07-03", "close": 31.594999, "volume": 456, "typical_volume": 8545.5, "trend": 31.114, "fair_value": 27.400801, "relative_strength": -12.505465, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.466707, "energy": 21.210614, "activity_lines": [ 31.142, 31.067, 30.913452, 31.007774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.645, "volume": 12761, "typical_volume": 8665.35, "trend": 31.147, "fair_value": 27.455994, "relative_strength": -11.72508, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.520727, "energy": 33.924937, "activity_lines": [ 31.336666, 31.188545, 30.984285, 31.042032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.540001, "volume": 7308, "typical_volume": 8438.35, "trend": 31.173833, "fair_value": 27.507917, "relative_strength": -10.474606, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.404726, "energy": 40.145162, "activity_lines": [ 31.447333, 31.269636, 31.047809, 31.067387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.645, "volume": 3499, "typical_volume": 8129.4, "trend": 31.2055, "fair_value": 27.558269, "relative_strength": -9.745938, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.399349, "energy": 53.531018, "activity_lines": [ 31.554333, 31.361, 31.123452, 31.097785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.349998, "volume": 7245, "typical_volume": 7870.4, "trend": 31.246, "fair_value": 27.617211, "relative_strength": -8.105128, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.54879, "energy": 64.833401, "activity_lines": [ 31.855666, 31.559909, 31.263381, 31.171623 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.455002, "volume": 5405, "typical_volume": 7786.35, "trend": 31.279833, "fair_value": 27.684423, "relative_strength": -7.480075, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 94.250111, "energy": 91.318154, "activity_lines": [ 32.422334, 31.938909, 31.501857, 31.31414 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }