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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.728, "architecture_energy": 89.957, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.517, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.63, "rotation_up": 70.5, "upward_expansion": 92.73, "deceleration": 46.59, "rotation_down": 20.75, "downward_expansion": 19.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 91.388188, 91.333379, 91.230668, 91.113178 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 91.48, "trend_reference": 90.921388, "distance_from_trend": 0.006144, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 86.647509, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055772, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.827489, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011935, "excess_performance": -0.11369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006144, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005223, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055772, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004964, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098275, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000864, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011935, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.330583, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60755118, "relative_activity": 1.137719, "balance": 10.330583, "dry_up": 0.914153, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.000901, "annualized_volatility": 0.005554, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.031418 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.921388, "fair_value_reference": 86.647509, "structural_low": 90.401084, 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"volume": 50022600, "typical_volume": 53447614.8, "trend": 90.877405, "fair_value": 86.577608, "relative_strength": -7.041142, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.099338, "energy": 73.494289, "activity_lines": [ 91.322673, 91.293967, 91.194443, 91.074301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 91.48, "volume": 60755118, "typical_volume": 53400793.75, "trend": 90.921388, "fair_value": 86.647509, "relative_strength": -9.827489, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.727739, "energy": 89.956573, "activity_lines": [ 91.388188, 91.333379, 91.230668, 91.113178 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }