{ "ticker": { "uuid": "caa47882-eefb-495d-8f47-e3cc68e31145", "symbol": "INSURE", "name": "Indara Insurance Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -85.209, "architecture_energy": 74.682, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.673, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.21, "rotation_up": 22.4, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.97, "rotation_down": 73.94, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.7, 51.581818, 54.119048, 56.119892 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 50.0, "trend_reference": 58.6, "distance_from_trend": -0.146758, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 80.443364, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.378445, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.097494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2, "excess_performance": -0.392325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146758, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081864, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.378445, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071276, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330975, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065087, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.081081, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200, "relative_activity": 0.547945, "balance": 0.081081, "dry_up": 1.643836, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020769, "annualized_volatility": 0.167385, "from_high_reference": -0.39759, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.6, "fair_value_reference": 80.443364, "structural_low": 50.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.022115, "positive_rate": 0.26087, "directional_follow_through": 0.73913, "median_excess_return": -0.03133, "regime_survival": 0.891304, "best_return": 0.252174, "worst_return": -0.29386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.080443, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.11959, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.391667, "worst_return": -0.290749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.188211, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.218794, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.304688, "worst_return": -0.422907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"trend": 60.866667, "fair_value": 82.103668, "relative_strength": -34.537219, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.757318, "energy": 97.458923, "activity_lines": [ 52.6, 54.409091, 56.783333, 58.481183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.0, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 445.0, "trend": 60.166667, "fair_value": 81.679359, "relative_strength": -35.141026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.544037, "energy": 95.458672, "activity_lines": [ 51.833333, 53.518182, 56.057143, 57.844624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 375.0, "trend": 59.566667, "fair_value": 81.266608, "relative_strength": -34.57649, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.607849, "energy": 90.325987, "activity_lines": [ 51.383333, 52.781818, 55.388095, 57.253226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.0, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 385.0, "trend": 59.0, "fair_value": 80.839411, "relative_strength": -33.063218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.291226, "energy": 72.546925, "activity_lines": [ 51.133333, 52.209091, 54.769048, 56.700538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.0, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 365.0, "trend": 58.6, "fair_value": 80.443364, "relative_strength": -33.097494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.209164, "energy": 74.682429, "activity_lines": [ 50.7, 51.581818, 54.119048, 56.119892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }