{ "ticker": { "uuid": "caa60168-558e-498a-969a-0460e23c4d0e", "symbol": "XMAS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI EM Asia Screened Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.213, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.746, "architecture_energy": 26.865, "architecture_maturity": 66.214, "architecture_confidence": 80.325, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.37, "rotation_up": 21.16, "upward_expansion": 55.32, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 36.62, "downward_expansion": 18.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 87.088, 88.860364, 88.467667, 85.830581 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 87.75, "trend_reference": 82.380667, "distance_from_trend": 0.065177, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.391442, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.429352, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.349611, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.173442, "excess_performance": 0.00255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065177, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0922, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.429352, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003496, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142882, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173442, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.63974, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4542, "relative_activity": 1.946516, "balance": 0.63974, "dry_up": 1.441566, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047276, "annualized_volatility": 0.261905, "from_high_reference": -0.093492, "from_low_reference": 0.421053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 82.380667, "fair_value_reference": 61.391442, "structural_low": 70.040001, "invalidation": "A 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019588, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066591, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131952, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034251, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.107283, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", 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"direction": 48.644308, "energy": 41.552017, "activity_lines": [ 90.368001, 90.797819, 87.824191, 84.752473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 86.989998, "volume": 1117, "typical_volume": 2029.15, "trend": 81.329667, "fair_value": 60.901314, "relative_strength": 2.764901, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.663496, "energy": 26.756918, "activity_lines": [ 88.740001, 90.132727, 88.109286, 85.158258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 85.889999, "volume": 3515, "typical_volume": 2123.25, "trend": 81.889333, "fair_value": 61.134808, "relative_strength": 0.601745, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.150772, "energy": 26.513228, "activity_lines": [ 87.374, 89.307091, 88.227333, 85.452473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.75, "volume": 4542, "typical_volume": 2333.4, "trend": 82.380667, "fair_value": 61.391442, "relative_strength": -0.349611, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.746015, "energy": 26.865471, "activity_lines": [ 87.088, 88.860364, 88.467667, 85.830581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }