{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "cab2a66d-ad3d-4cf5-8743-f041a380e7e0",
    "symbol": "GREAL",
    "name": "BNP Paribas Easy FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Europe Green CTB UCITS ETF Cap",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 53.933,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 49.187,
    "architecture_energy": 65.978,
    "architecture_maturity": 10.189,
    "architecture_confidence": 59.68,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 23.95,
        "rotation_up": 74.27,
        "upward_expansion": 63.27,
        "deceleration": 21.7,
        "rotation_down": 16.79,
        "downward_expansion": 21.6
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        6.985733,
        6.922091,
        6.833357,
        6.828757
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 7.046,
    "trend_reference": 6.8583,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.027368,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 6.782096,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038912,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -11.648441,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.005136,
    "excess_performance": -0.165756,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027368,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005193,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038912,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040238,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.116484,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027714,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005136,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 4.249199,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2,
      "relative_activity": 0.000588,
      "balance": 4.249199,
      "dry_up": 2.272667,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.017249,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.207593,
      "from_high_reference": -0.056634,
      "from_low_reference": 0.122511
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 6.8583,
      "fair_value_reference": 6.782096,
      "structural_low": 6.277,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.037463,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.031189,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.029485,
        "worst_return": -0.159774,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.008857,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.048125,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.037482,
        "worst_return": -0.122723,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.023066,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.081105,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.107577,
        "worst_return": -0.129643,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.028948,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.178103,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": -0.022066,
        "worst_return": -0.028951,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.079071,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.02382,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.013535,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.007297,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-09-19",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.050646,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.043822,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.001647,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.025388,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "return": 0.005866,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.023966,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.074004,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.042482,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "return": 0.011936,
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "color": "teal",
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        "return": 0.010034,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 5.847,
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        "typical_volume": 12886.5,
        "trend": 6.094967,
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        "direction": 5.808911,
        "energy": 15.467395,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.8228,
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          6.864581,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 6.692,
        "volume": 14007,
        "typical_volume": 4917.5,
        "trend": 6.857867,
        "fair_value": 6.700885,
        "relative_strength": -14.419795,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -38.859362,
        "energy": 23.240533,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.800867,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 4917.35,
        "trend": 6.849633,
        "fair_value": 6.707192,
        "relative_strength": -13.781484,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -41.920001,
        "energy": 21.291044,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.758467,
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          6.828214,
          6.838041
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 4917.25,
        "trend": 6.832467,
        "fair_value": 6.712994,
        "relative_strength": -15.74388,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.915696,
        "energy": 47.60407,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 6.786,
        "volume": 2992,
        "typical_volume": 5047.85,
        "trend": 6.822867,
        "fair_value": 6.72025,
        "relative_strength": -13.366136,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.855307,
        "energy": 38.703352,
        "activity_lines": [
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          6.788748,
          6.816292
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 6.643,
        "volume": 5,
        "typical_volume": 5043.85,
        "trend": 6.818667,
        "fair_value": 6.725346,
        "relative_strength": -14.533226,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.243439,
        "energy": 47.396284,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 6.52,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 5042.8,
        "trend": 6.807667,
        "fair_value": 6.729724,
        "relative_strength": -18.213263,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -73.192147,
        "energy": 63.40317,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": -18.092204,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -55.111085,
        "energy": 43.135239,
        "activity_lines": [
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          6.720252,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 6.88,
        "volume": 5095,
        "typical_volume": 5277.45,
        "trend": 6.810867,
        "fair_value": 6.745949,
        "relative_strength": -12.239515,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -23.249816,
        "energy": 19.025518,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.710667,
          6.695982,
          6.726967,
          6.780596
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 6.951,
        "volume": 1211,
        "typical_volume": 5337.95,
        "trend": 6.819633,
        "fair_value": 6.755231,
        "relative_strength": -13.404442,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -2.918599,
        "energy": 9.918759,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.795267,
          6.739273,
          6.741062,
          6.789637
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 6.867,
        "volume": 2342,
        "typical_volume": 5451.6,
        "trend": 6.829267,
        "fair_value": 6.760955,
        "relative_strength": -13.662301,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 18.68124,
        "energy": 29.318492,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.840867,
          6.765455,
          6.747676,
          6.792692
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 6.976,
        "volume": 23961,
        "typical_volume": 4001.4,
        "trend": 6.840567,
        "fair_value": 6.766244,
        "relative_strength": -10.659209,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 35.191802,
        "energy": 51.303198,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.907867,
          6.811145,
          6.7665,
          6.802159
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 6.907,
        "volume": 5763,
        "typical_volume": 3758.5,
        "trend": 6.847767,
        "fair_value": 6.771013,
        "relative_strength": -10.989094,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.676847,
        "energy": 54.424659,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.921467,
          6.839127,
          6.7811,
          6.806445
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 7.004,
        "volume": 1200,
        "typical_volume": 3405.55,
        "trend": 6.8564,
        "fair_value": 6.776404,
        "relative_strength": -9.989518,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 35.277047,
        "energy": 57.724385,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.950733,
          6.880836,
          6.805848,
          6.816525
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 7.046,
        "volume": 2,
        "typical_volume": 3401.95,
        "trend": 6.8583,
        "fair_value": 6.782096,
        "relative_strength": -11.648441,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 49.187069,
        "energy": 65.977717,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.985733,
          6.922091,
          6.833357,
          6.828757
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}