{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cab69bf9-a9d8-4121-af00-d4f53fbd4d69", "symbol": "8050", "name": "Salama Cooperative Insurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.219, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.612, "architecture_energy": 17.16, "architecture_maturity": 40.943, "architecture_confidence": 64.583, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.88, "rotation_up": 34.74, "upward_expansion": 33.89, "deceleration": 46.49, "rotation_down": 28.77, "downward_expansion": 20.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.828, 8.830727, 8.490381, 8.359011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.77, "trend_reference": 8.372, "distance_from_trend": 0.047539, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.247403, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.491518, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.143534, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.038377, "excess_performance": -0.006548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047539, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047048, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.491518, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057667, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061435, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.183702, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038377, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.319308, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1281670, "relative_activity": 1.250686, "balance": 1.319308, "dry_up": 0.900706, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078853, "annualized_volatility": 0.361228, "from_high_reference": -0.33308, "from_low_reference": 0.218056 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.372, "fair_value_reference": 17.247403, "structural_low": 7.2, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.111449, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.088726, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.111449, "worst_return": -0.111449, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2021-08-13", "end": "2021-09-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021359, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2021-09-17", "end": "2021-10-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092382, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-10-15", "end": "2023-02-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.710019, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-24", "end": "2023-04-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.232624, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-05-05", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.360092, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.231822, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.091609, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15544, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.394413, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.175844, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086066, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.691493, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111449, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 15.314806, "volume": 637402, "typical_volume": 852757.0, "trend": 11.927819, "fair_value": 26.638473, "relative_strength": 26.829278, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.649454, 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950608.65, "trend": 8.403, "fair_value": 17.439362, "relative_strength": -3.853741, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.497959, "energy": 62.001883, "activity_lines": [ 8.984, 8.522364, 8.225476, 8.249161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.95, "volume": 736977, "typical_volume": 948885.55, "trend": 8.398, "fair_value": 17.385671, "relative_strength": -5.505842, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.057784, "energy": 62.907928, "activity_lines": [ 9.058667, 8.649818, 8.310905, 8.284452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.78, "volume": 826028, "typical_volume": 961104.65, "trend": 8.39, "fair_value": 17.33341, "relative_strength": -7.131134, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.297821, "energy": 60.992022, "activity_lines": [ 9.024667, 8.729273, 8.375619, 8.309097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.77, "volume": 847404, "typical_volume": 971447.3, "trend": 8.376333, "fair_value": 17.290364, "relative_strength": -4.640968, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.183671, "energy": 30.60079, "activity_lines": [ 8.946, 8.790727, 8.436095, 8.333613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.77, "volume": 1281670, "typical_volume": 1024773.85, "trend": 8.372, "fair_value": 17.247403, "relative_strength": -6.143534, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.611921, "energy": 17.160187, "activity_lines": [ 8.828, 8.830727, 8.490381, 8.359011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }