{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cab81ad4-a09c-4ae0-a1f9-2e14bf00e2c8", "symbol": "XMLA", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI EM Latin America ESG Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.913, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.669, "architecture_energy": 18.127, "architecture_maturity": 15.324, "architecture_confidence": 59.159, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.38, "rotation_up": 36.15, "upward_expansion": 25.87, "deceleration": 37.78, "rotation_down": 25.71, "downward_expansion": 50.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 4302.033333, 4274.009091, 4286.909524, 4310.144086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4293.0, "trend_reference": 4325.766667, "distance_from_trend": -0.007575, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3446.064103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.245769, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.237194, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.020534, "excess_performance": -0.071769, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007575, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03239, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.245769, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069044, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022372, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124898, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020534, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.777735, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13154, "relative_activity": 1.508754, "balance": 0.777735, "dry_up": 0.978098, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026883, "annualized_volatility": 0.193628, "from_high_reference": -0.099622, "from_low_reference": 0.30964 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4325.766667, "fair_value_reference": 3446.064103, "structural_low": 4057.350098, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.004134, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.005348, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.071429, "worst_return": -0.102564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.017097, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.035564, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107282, "worst_return": -0.120779, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.02209, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021907, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102258, 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"Established", "return": 0.028457, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038847, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.118541, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024485, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019228, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103598, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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4308.903226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4257.5, "volume": 5488, "typical_volume": 11832.2, "trend": 4267.583333, "fair_value": 3423.480769, "relative_strength": 1.526962, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.792679, "energy": 13.519938, "activity_lines": [ 4241.666667, 4230.027273, 4297.238095, 4309.104301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4205.0, "volume": 2211, "typical_volume": 11390.6, "trend": 4280.783333, "fair_value": 3428.532051, "relative_strength": -0.904789, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.698343, "energy": 15.414065, "activity_lines": [ 4229.833333, 4222.890909, 4285.235714, 4305.066667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4318.0, "volume": 14612, "typical_volume": 11556.75, "trend": 4297.35, "fair_value": 3433.875, "relative_strength": 0.223148, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.776366, "energy": 6.998716, "activity_lines": [ 4258.333333, 4240.481818, 4285.6, 4307.467742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4361.0, "volume": 4133, "typical_volume": 8718.9, "trend": 4315.166667, "fair_value": 3439.996795, "relative_strength": -0.242854, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.396651, "energy": 15.602633, "activity_lines": [ 4295.2, 4264.454545, 4289.890476, 4311.574194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4293.0, "volume": 13154, "typical_volume": 8718.45, "trend": 4325.766667, "fair_value": 3446.064103, "relative_strength": -2.237194, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.668599, "energy": 18.126825, "activity_lines": [ 4302.033333, 4274.009091, 4286.909524, 4310.144086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }